- San Jose Earthquakes have been much better on the road than at home in MLS 2026, winning six, drawing one and losing just one of their eight away matches.
- San Jose's man-marking system and intense press should suit their away record and they can make Cincinnati uncomfortable on Saturday.
Quakes to give Cincinnati a run for their money
FC Cincinnati, 1.97 favourites for Saturday's MLS 2026 clash against San Jose Earthquakes, have been in good form, but they'll be hard pressed to see off a good visiting team. Pat Noonan has done a solid job at the Orange & Blue since taking over in December 2021, building a solid structure and getting the best out of his players.
FC Cincinnati have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five games, but they've been in top form at home, winning three straight and averaging 3.00 goals scored and 2.12 goals conceded in eight home games in MLS 2026. Evander Ferreira has been their main creator with seven assists in their last five as Cincinnati have scored 13 times. Kevin Denkey leads the club's scoring charts with 11 goals in 16 matches in MLS 2026, which gives them a finisher to back up the assists coming through.
San Jose are higher up the table than Cincinnati, who are 15th with 23 points from 17 games, but they have played one fewer match. The visitors are fourth, having taken 32 points from 16 matches, and they travel to TQL Stadium on the back of one win and four defeats in their last five. Bruce Arena has brought an attacking edge to a team that still has plenty of bite to them since taking over in January 2025.
Earthquakes have the edge, but Cincinnati can edge it
The Earthquakes beat Portland Timbers 3-1 in their most recent away game, but then were trounced 4-0 at home by Orlando City SC in the match prior to that. That sort of boom-or-bust style can be a liability, but it could suit San Jose for this game in which they can press Cincinnati all over the field and then get men behind the ball when they lose the ball in their own half.
The last head-to-head, which finished 4-2 to Cincinnati away in MLS 2024, is a reminder that these teams can open each other up quickly, so over 2.5 goals at 1.33 and both teams to score at the same price appeals for this match. Cincinnati are a control-based side that presses selectively and tries to play through the middle when they break, so they could be open to counter-attacks here.
Preston Judd has scored 11 goals in 16 MLS 2026 matches for San Jose and three of them have come in their last five matches, during which time the club has hit seven goals in total. That's why, despite the visitors' superior position in the league, we're taking Cincinnati to just edge a tight but exciting contest at 1.97.
