- Belgium are unbeaten across their last 10 in all competitions (W6, D4), Senegal have won one, drawn one and lost three of their last five in all competitions.
- Belgium conceded just one goal in their four home games in historical context.
- Senegal have won once and lost thrice across their away games, scoring 1.50 goals per away game and conceding 2.25 goals per away game.
Belgium are the superior side on paper
There is no head-to-head record in this fixture and although Senegal will be a tough nut to crack, Belgium are the clear favourites at 49/50, with Senegal 71/20 and the draw at 47/20, which matches both sides' form.
Belgium were the masters of the nil-all against Iran in their FIFA World Cup Group G opener, before absolutely thrashing New Zealand 5-1, which is a reminder that Belgium can be both a grinding side and a whirlwind when they get going.
Senegal will test Belgium in Seattle Stadium, USA on Wednesday after losing 3-2 to Norway in Group I at the FIFA World Cup 2026 before smashing Iraq 5-0, so they will arrive with mixed momentum.
Garcia's Belgians play with a different sort of pressure
Rudi Garcia took over as Belgium boss on 24 January 2025 and the former Roma manager has brought a calm, possession-first style to the Red Devils. Garcia's Belgium can control tempo with patient circulation and selective pressing, which can often smother these chaotic games and let their opponents run into a headwind.
Pape Thiaw was appointed Senegal boss on 3 October 2024 and he has his team playing a high-energy, front-foot game with some impressive pressing and verticality. Thiaw's men want to win the ball back in dangerous areas and then flood forward, turning turnovers into immediate danger.
The Under 2.5 goals market sits at 57/100, which seems about right considering Belgium's recent fixtures have all been low-scoring. However, both teams not to score at 7/10 seems a little too short given Senegal will look to force Belgium into chasing them.
Stick with the favourites
Belgium's last five across all competitions reads three wins and two draws, so the favourites are in a decent rhythm and look very difficult to break down. Senegal's last ten across all competitions has been a little more volatile, with five wins, one draw and four defeats, which suggests they could explode and score, or they could get beaten.
The most likely outcome here is that Belgium edge out a narrow win, with Senegal looking to play positively and Belgium looking to keep a lid on the game. If the Belgians can resist Senegal's press, they'll dominate this fixture, but if not, it could get lively with Senegal able to get space in behind.
