- Japan won the last H2H 3-2 8 months ago in a friendly international.
- Brazil have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 in their last 5 FIFA World Cup Group C 2026 matches.
- Japan have won 3 and drawn 2 in their last 5 FIFA World Cup Group F 2026 matches.
An Asian side will take down Brazil?
Brazil arrive as 81/100 market favourites for this fixture ahead of Japan who are priced at 193/50, with the draw at 27/10. That's a pretty standard price for a clash between a South American and an Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stages, but what's clear is that neither side are in bad nick.
Carlo Ancelotti has been in charge of Brazil since the 26th May 2025 and he has already instilled a level of structure to this team which makes the 4-3-3 system fluid and flexible, able to transform into a 4-1-3-2 or a 4-1-4-1. Their width allows them to attack vertically while a selective counter-pressing style keeps the play compact when out of possession. They've won their last 2 games, beating Haiti 3-0 at home and Scotland 3-0 away, so the attack is firing.
Japan's Hajime Moriyasu has been the manager since the 26th July 2018, so his 3-4-2-1 or 4-2-3-1 has been in place for a long time. This system keeps them very compact, very disciplined and very hungry to chase the ball when out of possession. They have three wins and two draws in their last five games, including a 1-1 draw with Sweden and a 4-0 win over Tunisia, suggesting that Japan have both the punch to finish off games and the composure to keep the score down when needed.
Across all competitions, Brazil have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 and Japan are unbeaten in their last 10 with 7 wins and 3 draws. So Brazil are in a solid run but are not unassailable by any means while Japan are on a run of games which suggests they will be very dangerous in this competition.
A cagey affair awaits
With 7 wins and 3 draws in their last 10, Japan should not be underestimated by Brazil, who are clearly the more powerful side on paper. Our main selection for this game is Under 2.5 goals at 41/50 with Both Teams to Score - No at 83/100.
Brazil are rightful favourites for this clash, but the value is with the Asian nation and we're going to side with Brazil to nick it in a cagey, tactical affair. The last H2H ended in a 3-2 win for Japan 8 months ago and the styles of play should see Brazil try to spread the play wide and stretch the channels while Japan will look to pounce on turnovers and counter-attack at speed.
