- Germany have won nine of their last ten in all competitions, losing once, while Paraguay have won four of their last ten, drawing two and losing four.
- Germany have won all five of their home matches across all competitions, scoring 21 goals.
Germans have a grip on the game
Germany and Paraguay have been well-contrasted teams at this FIFA World Cup, with Julian Nagelsmann's young side playing at a high tempo and attacking the goal in bunches while Gustavo Alfaro has been trying to keep things compact and pragmatic in the Paraguay camp.
The Germans are coming off a good 2-1 home win over Ivory Coast in Group E at the weekend, before a 2-1 defeat away to Ecuador.
But Paraguay beat Turkey 1-0 away from home in Group D and then held Australia to a goalless draw at home, so there is no obvious gap in quality between these two sides and there is a history of Germany winning this matchup. Germany beat Paraguay in their only ever meeting at the FIFA World Cup in the Round of 16 in 2002.
Germany have the form to finish the job
Germany are the clear favourites at 9/20 for Monday's game, but Paraguay are an enormous 143/20 and the draw odds are a massive 397/100.
That's understandable on one hand, as the Germans have been in superb form while Paraguay are a bit up-and-down, but we're going to get on board with Germany here at odds-on because it just seems obvious.
They will dominate this match from the start and while the Paraguayans won't fold, their best bet is to sit deep and attempt to nick it.
Paraguay are not in Germany’s class
Paraguay's away stats across all competitions aren't great, with La Albirroja having scored 1.12 and conceded 1.62 goals per match on average, which could be a problem against a side like Germany, who are capable of punching their way through most teams.
Germany will force the action against Paraguay's low block and in doing so should keep the visitors pinned back for long periods. We see Nagelsmann's side controlling the game and the match odds look about right.
A home win and under 2.5 goals is our selection for Monday's last 16 encounter because we don't see this becoming a goal-fest with Germany running away with it. Paraguay will sit back and make it difficult, so take Under 2.5 goals at 26/25 and Both Teams To Score - No at 3/4 for the main bet.
