- Portugal are unbeaten in their last five in all competitions, winning three and drawing two.
- Croatia are on a two-game winning streak in all competitions, beating Panama 1-0 and Ghana 2-1.
- Portugal and Croatia have each won one and drawn one in their previous three head-to-head meetings in all competitions.
Portugal can pip the draw at Toronto Stadium
Roberto Martínez's Portugal are the likeliest winners against Zlatko Dalić's Croatia when two of Europe's most established international managers meet in the knockout stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on Thursday, but this won't be a straightforward game. Martínez has overseen a consistent all-round improvement in Portugal's performance since stepping into the hotseat on January 9th, 2023, and his players look tactically fluid and hard to pin down in the shape-shifting 4-2-3-1 system that he employs. Portugal will get on the ball and try to play, but they can go from four-at-the-back to a back three when the full-backs are flying forward and are capable of shutting the tap when they need to. Dalić's Croatia will be no pushovers on Thursday. The former Al-Ahly coach has been at the helm since October 7th, 2017 and, with tournament nous and experience, still possesses a big weapon for the world's biggest competitions. His Croatia play a compact 4-3-3 with a selective press that is neither as intense as the Netherlands or as deep as Spain, but it is a structured and smart system that allows his side to stay tight in the midfield and maintain the game within their control.
Portugal have the final third edge
Portugal's 5-0 home demolition of Uzbekistan and their subsequent 0-0 away to Colombia in their FIFA World Cup Group K 2026 games are the perfect reflection of their balance. Croatia are similarly two-faced in that their 1-0 away win over Panama was followed by a 2-1 home victory against Ghana.
Portugal have conceded just six goals in their six home fixtures across all competitions, so Croatia will fancy their chances in this clash. Dalić's team have won three and lost two of their last five away matches in all competitions and can travel to Toronto Stadium with a bite.
Portugal are priced at 17/20, the draw is at 11/5 and Croatia at 3/1, so the Portuguese side are favourites to advance. But with Croatia's current streak and solid system, this one looks closer than the odds suggest. The 1-1 stalemate in UEFA Nations League A, Group 1 2024/2025 between these nations a year ago, only serves to confirm this feeling.
Take the sting out of this encounter
We will side with Portugal to secure the victory but not in a dominant fashion. The European kings have scored with authority in their first game in Canada, but they did blank Colombia, so it is more likely to be a cagey affair than a goal-filled game.
Under 2.5 goals at 31/50 and Both Teams To Score - No at 7/10 should appeal in the direct markets for this matchup, which may develop into a midfield chess match between Portugal's creativity and verticality and Croatia's control and risk management.
