- France have won their last four games, making it eight wins, one draw and one defeat from ten across all competitions.
- Sweden have won one, drawn two and lost two of their last five matches in all competitions.
- France have played their five home games, conceding only four goals in total.
France have swagger in their stride
France go into this game as the favourite at 9/20 for a reason and it is the Swedes who will need something special to pull an upset in New York/New Jersey Stadium, USA. The Swedes are a solid team and can get the ball in the box regularly but lack the balance and quality to go with the French, who are the most balanced and talented side of the last 50 years.
France are a possession-based team with pace and quality at the top and in midfield, but they excel when their quick players have the chance to run in transition with the game in front of them. Sweden are a more direct side and more of a duel-based team than the World Cup finalists from 2018. Graham Potter's men set up compact and solid and put the ball into dangerous areas, using the second balls to create their chances.
France have looked fantastic in FIFA World Cup Group I 2026, beating Senegal 3-1, Iraq 3-0 and Norway 4-1 away from home, and there is a clear style clash here that should allow the French to dominate the dangerous moments, although Sweden will try and make it a grindfest and keep the match in the trenches.
Sweden will make it a battle
The market has this down as a close affair, with Over 2.5 goals at 4/5 and Both Teams To Score a shade of 19/20 the pick of the odds on offer. Sweden are 63/10 for the win and 69/20 for the draw, which is a little high given the way these two teams play and what the stats suggest is likely to happen.
France to win should be the main bet, but Sweden's direct play and possession of Alexander Isak, who has three assists in their last five, should make it a tough watch and a contest that will be won in the second halves and from set pieces.
Alexander Isak keeps the Swedish forwards ticking over and is always a threat, but Didier Deschamps' side look impossible to break down. France have conceded just four goals in their past five home matches and look the most solid side we have seen in quite some time. The way they have been playing, they should get a few chances in this clash and may be able to pick off a goal or two.
Sweden have lost one of their two games in the USA, going down 5-1 away to the Netherlands before holding Japan to a 1-1 draw in San Francisco. In their three most recent away games, they have picked up no wins, one draw and two defeats in Sweden's national colours, suggesting they may struggle to get ahead of France's tempo and vertical punch.
