- Canada have scored 1.50 goals per match in this run, conceding an average of 1.00 goals on the road.
- South Africa have scored just four goals in their last five home matches (all competitions).
- Jesse Marsch has had time to hone Canada's system, which is starting to look very sharp.
Canada can nick it in a tight game
Canada will take some stopping on Sunday as they bring their momentum and verve into a tough-looking clash against South Africa at Los Angeles Stadium. Canada's record of three wins, six draws and only one defeat from their last 10 matches in all competitions is superior to Hugo Broos' South Africa (W3, D3, L4) and they should justify their slight favourites status.
Jesse Marsch has been in charge of the Canucks since 15 May 2024 and his high-energy system has had time to bed down and now looks a serious proposition. Canada's 6-0 mauling of Qatar in their FIFA World Cup Group B 2026 opener was followed by a 2-1 defeat to a stubborn Switzerland side and Marsch's men can be a little one-paced, but their pressing, wide overloads and speed on the break will allow them to pin South Africa back and create space.
The fixture history is non-existent, so it's better to focus on the momentum of the two nations and the fact that South Africa are a structured, organised, compact side that will be tough to break down. Broos has been at the helm since May 2021 and his best chance of success is to get men behind the ball and get numbers in the midfield to counter-attack. South Africa's Group A results, a 2-0 defeat to Mexico, 1-1 draw with the Czech Republic and 1-0 win over the Republic of Korea, sums the kind of football we are likely to see on Sunday.
No room for two teams to score
We're taking Both Teams to Score - No at 41/50 in this spot as one of these sides is going to be kept at bay and not get many clean looks. Canada are 7/10 to win, which is a bit tight, but still good enough to back as the likeliest side to nick it in a cagey match. We are expecting a Canada win, probably by one goal, and a game under 2.5 goals at 83/100, which fits the chess match style that South Africa will try to play.
Canada are good enough to win this in a low-scoring fashion because their pressing and pace will produce a moment while South Africa will be content to drag it into a scrap. Alphonso Davies is a game-breaker, but Jonathan David is the headline name on the field as the striker has three goals in his last five for Canada and has scored a big share of their nine goals during the same period.
