- Atletico Madrid have won 1 and drawn 2 of their last 3 head-to-head meetings with Deportivo Alaves.
- Los Colchoneros have won their last 3 matches in a row and have taken 3 wins from their last 5 overall.
- Deportivo Alaves have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3 home matches.
Los Colchoneros too hot to hold at home
Atletico Madrid should have enough quality to stop their rot and beat Deportivo Alaves in a tightly contested match at Estadio Mendizorroza on Saturday, when the teams will play out a classic block-versus-firepower clash.
Oscar Fernandez's men have found a formula to blend their structured build-up play with a more aggressive counter-pressing style and greater fluidity out wide. Atleti have been a lively attacking force on their travels in LaLiga 2026/2027, winning 2 of their 3 away matches and averaging 2.00 goals per away game.
Babazorros have been solid at home, winning 3 of 4 and scoring nine goals, but Atletico are so strong on the counter that they'll have to be very careful not to get caught out at any time in this fixture. Quique Sanchez Flores has done an excellent job to date, building a compact, disciplined side that sits deep and then springs the front two into life with vertical balls.
Atleti are the clear favourites for this game at 17/20, which doesn't make any sense given Alaves are 59/20 and the draw is 53/20, but that's perhaps because they have failed to win any of their last 3 away matches against this opponent. That fact certainly keeps the underdog angle alive, but Fernandez's team look like the likelier winners given they have just beaten Real Sociedad 3-0, Osasuna 4-0 and Real Madrid 2-1.
Boye the best bet for Babazorros’ goal
Sanchez Flores has his men playing a 4-4-1-1, but it's very easy to get them out of shape if they are not careful. Atleti have a real sharp shooter in Alejandro Baena, who has scored four goals in seven LaLiga 2026/2027 matches, giving them a cutting edge in the attacking third.
Atletico Madrid will try to break Alaves down, although Babazorros have the quality to make a fight of it. Flores' men have stumbled a little in the last fortnight, losing 2-1 at Racing Santander and 0-1 at home to Valencia and then being held to a 0-0 away draw by Athletic Bilbao.
Lucas Boye has been their main man in the final third, netting four goals in six LaLiga 2026/2027 matches and three of Babazorros' six goals in the past five games. Atleti's Canadian striker Jonathan David has also hit his stride, scoring three of Atletico's ten goals in their previous five matches.
The Under 2.5 goals market looks too tight at 19/20 for a game that could be cagey but is likely to be live at some stage, so BTTS: Yes is my pick at 73/100. Alaves are 6th in the table with 11 points from seven matches while Atletico are 2nd with 16 from the same number of games, so Fernandez's side are clearly on the up.
