- Atletico Madrid have won 3 matches in a row.
- Atletico have averaged 2.00 goals per game on the road in the current season, while Alaves have averaged 2.25 at home.
- Atletico have won one of the last three head-to-head meetings between the two clubs, with the other two finishing level.
Atleti in good form at a decent price
The odds reflect the strength of the two teams perfectly as Atletico Madrid are the short odds favourites at 1.85, with Alaves much higher at 3.95 and the draw at 3.65. This could be a cagey match with both teams scoring, but Atletico Madrid are the likelier winner in this clash of two very different strategies.
Alaves have been good at home in LaLiga 2026/2027 with three wins and a defeat from four outings, while they have scored nine goals across the four games, so they should be expected to test the visitors.
But Atletico Madrid have been in superb form lately, winning their last three games in a row, and they can get the better of an Alaves side that have stumbled over the past couple of weeks.
Alaves lack a cutting edge up front
Los Colchoneros have beaten Real Sociedad 3-0, Osasuna 4-0 and Real Madrid 2-1 and that is enough to suggest they will be too strong for the Babazorros, even though they haven't won in their last three trips to Alaves.
Quique Sanchez Flores has fashioned a compact, tough to break down side from the men he has at his disposal at Alaves. He has had the reins at the club since 3 March 2026 and has built a team that sits deep, only really looking to spring quick vertical counters through the front two.
Lucas Boye has been their lifeline in this period, scoring 4 goals in 6 appearances in this LaLiga 2026/2027 campaign and netting 3 of their 6 goals across the most recent five-game spell.
Atleti boss Oscar Fernandez has been in the job since 1 July 2021 and has managed to mix Atletico's usual structured build-up and aggressive counter-pressing with more fluid wide play.
Alejandro Baena has taken his chance under Fernandez with 4 goals in 7 league appearances in 2026/2027 and his ability to drift into pockets of space between the lines could be a huge factor in this match. Jonathan David has also been in great form with three goals in Atletico's last five, in a period when they have hit 10 goals.
Back the visitors to edge a close game
Alaves have won two and lost one of their last three at Estadio Mendizorroza and can make a match of this game in front of their own fans, but Atletico's extra quality and form should see them through.
A home crowd can make such a difference in Spain and they may be able to hold Atletico, but they are unlikely to keep the Madrid club out entirely. The odds are tight but Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 and Both Teams To Score: Yes at 1.73 look two of the best bets on offer in what should be a tight but live match.
