- Derry City have been in poor form with three wins in their last 10 matches in all competitions (W3, D1, L6).
- Rijeka have been solid with three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five matches (W3, D1, L1).
- HNK Rijeka are unbeaten away from home in all competitions (W1, D2).
Rijeka have a foot in the door
Rijeka were 1-0 winners against Derry City in UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 earlier on Thursday to give the Croatians the edge in the head-to-head and a solid base to build on for the return leg in Northern Ireland.
Derry will look to hit the visitors on the break on Thursday night, using their fast, direct football and wide overloads to get at Rijeka's full-backs, but it should be a pretty close match at the Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
Tiernan Lynch's men have been in mixed-to-poor form since he took over on 20 November 2024, mixing up the 4-2-3-1 in which they are usually deployed into a 4-3-5 when the Candystripes press, but they are a flexible and tough to pin down unit.
Rijeka can shut the game down
The market suggests a strong fancy in favour of the Croatians at 16/25 with Derry City 41/10 and the draw at 31/10, but we're inclined to go with a more cautious play on this match as Rijeka have been disciplined on the road.
Derry City have won two and lost two of their four home games in all competitions this season, while Rijeka have travelled with discipline, conceding just three goals away in all competitions (0.75 per game) with one win and two draws from four.
Matjaz Kek has done a good job in the short time he has been at the club since taking over on 7 June 2026 and appears to have made them much more compact, while also giving the team more control of the ball during build-up play.
Toni Fruk is Rijeka’s danger man
Their overall away record of unbeaten in four matches with one win and two draws is much better than Derry's home record (W2, L2) and they have the more experienced players to close down the game.
Backing Under 2.5 goals at 9/10 and Both Teams To Score at 22/25 in the match odds looks like the smart play as this has all the makings of a tight European affair.
Michael Duffy is an in-form creative outlet for Derry with three assists in five, while Ellis Chapman has three of their eight goals in the same period.
Rijeka's Toni Fruk has scored two of their six goals in the same time period, including the opener in UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026, so it is no surprise to see him as the danger man for the visitors.
