- A home win is the clear favourite but Hapoel Beer-Sheva's first-leg victory and solid counter-punch make this likely to be a close game.
- Red Star's home record across all competitions is W4, D0, L2 from six matches, which is a strong base to be playing off.
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva have conceded just five goals in four away matches across all competitions, which suggests a setup that is compact and ready for travel.
Kings Kangwa gives Hapoel hope
The odds of 9/25 for Red Star to get the job done at home in Belgrade on Tuesday night are generous enough to take given their superior talent, but Hapoel have just enough about them to suggest they can get a result. Crvena Zvezda are a clear step up in quality from the teams that Hapoel have faced in their opening four matches of the UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026 campaign and it will take a big improvement for them to earn a draw.
Hapoel have been in mixed-to-good form with a W2, L3 record across their last five, but the fact they have won two in a row and that they have a psychological advantage from winning the first leg 1-0 gives us enough reason to believe they can at least stay in this.
The Israeli outfit are built around a sturdy spine that can block the ball and switch play to the wide men, where their pace and power can punish any over-commitment. This will be a clash of styles with Red Star's high-intensity pressing and 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 formation set to ask more questions, but Hapoel have enough to trouble them.
Stankovic’s side should have enough to edge it
Red Star will want to edge the territory battle in this one and they are coming into the game with four wins and a defeat from their last five. Dejan Stankovic's men are set up to play vertically and are a high-tempo side who will be all over Hapoel if they're not careful. The hosts look the most likely winners, but their home defence has been leaking goals with 11 conceded in six matches in all competitions, so there is some wobble there.
A home victory is the top pick for Tuesday's game, but it is likely to be a low-scoring one at that. Hapoel have scored six goals across their last five with Kings Kangwa chipping in with two of them, while Red Star's top marksman Bruno Duarte has scored twice in two games in this competition.
Hapoel are 139/20 on the double chance market and we're happy to take those odds given Red Star are also 9/25 to win, but the Draw of 223/50 does have some appeal in this tie. We're going with a low-scoring home victory, however, as both teams to score is very close to evens, while we can keep the upset alive by taking Under 2.5 goals at 38/25.
