- Midtjylland are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (W4, D1) following a 1-1 draw at Lyngby last Saturday.
- HNK Rijeka are in poor form, having lost their last two matches.
- Midtjylland are better prepared to navigate the tie, but Rijeka are a good home side and will make this tight.
Wolves have the edge at Rujevica
Midtjylland hold the advantage in this UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 clash with a 2-0 home win in the head-to-head, and they look more likely to progress on Thursday when the tie is decided at Stadion Rujevica.
Rijeka are in much poorer form than Midtjylland, having lost their previous two matches. The Riječki bijeli were beaten 2-0 by Varazdin away in their next outing after the 2-0 defeat, and they are on a pretty poor run in their domestic league.
HNK Rijeka's home form is stronger across all competitions (W4, L1), but the Croatian hosts still have some work to do to turn around the 2-0 aggregate deficit from game one. Midtjylland have been solid on their travels in all comps this season, where they have posted three wins, one draw and one defeat from five, including the victory over Rijeka.
Rijeka are likely to stifle the game
Midtjylland have the advantage because they've been the better of the two sides in recent weeks. Ulvene are unbeaten in their last five (W4, D1), while Rijeka have won five, drawn two and lost three of their previous ten across all comps.
The goals haven't flown in for either side in this competition, but Franculino (2 goals in 3 Conference League matches and 3 in his last five overall) is a much bigger threat for Midtjylland than Daniel Adu-Adjei (1 goal in 5 matches) is for Rijeka.
Matjaz Kek has Rijeka set up with more structure, patience and transition control than chaos, while Mike Tullberg keeps Midtjylland playing high-tempo, vertical football with aggressive pressing.
Backing Under 2.5 goals at 4/5 seems appropriate for this tight, cagey contest and the 2-0 first-leg score line suggests Midtjylland are more likely to come through. However, Rijeka do give a good account of themselves at home and the home edge is enough to keep this in tight race.
The odds still reflect that the hosts are the slight favourites at 38/25, while the visitors are 2/1 and the draw is 43/20. Backing a draw would give small stakes a decent chance of returning a double-digit profit in the event that there is no winner.
