- FC Twente have failed to win either of their last 2 away games (D1, L1).
- FK Qarabag are unbeaten at home in all competitions, winning 3 and drawing 1 of 4.
- The hosts have conceded 1 goal across their 4 home games, Twente average 1.80 goals per game away from home.
Qarabag hold a fine advantage
The Atlılar, with 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 10 in all competitions, go into this second leg with a 1-0 lead after winning the first leg away from home in the UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026. A strong home record across all competitions, W3, D1, with just 1 goal conceded, will give Qurbanov's side plenty of confidence ahead of Thursday's game.
Qurbanov has the team moving the ball swiftly and effectively in transition, using the flanks to pace and exploiting the spaces with vertical runs. The hosts are in a strong position to defend their lead, and can nick the tie with a positive performance on Thursday.
Twente need to attack
FC Twente are a more balanced team, but John van den Brom's men have failed to make the impact he desires on the road this season, 0-1-1 in their recent away games. De Tukkers will need to chase the game on Thursday and that could make the trip to Baku an even trickier one.
Twente have been solid in their 4-2-3-1 system, a setup which has seen them circulate the ball patiently before looking for vertical penetration and selective pressing. It's been a mixed spell for the Dutch side across their last 10, W3, D3, L4, and they're still chasing consistent performance.
Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals at 3/5 - ★★☆
Twente have scored 9 goals in their 5 competitive away days and that should be enough to make the game an open one on Thursday, particularly as they'll be chasing the match. Qarabag's direct, sharp approach to games should suit the odds here, but I think the visitors can still make this a nervy affair.
FC Twente are 19/20 for the win here, while Qarabag come in at 47/20 for the victory, so I'll be supporting the draw at 29/10.
