- HJK Helsinki's Teemu Pukki has scored 3 goals in 3 UEFA Conference League Qualification games.
- Motherwell have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches, including a 2-1 away win over Hibernian.
- Motherwell have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their 4 home games in all competitions, conceding 8 goals at a rate of 2.00 per game.
Tight tussle expected at Fir Park
After last week's 1-1 draw in the first-leg of their UEFA Conference League Qualification tie, Motherwell and HJK Helsinki appear set to battle it out for a spot in UEFA's third competition in 2026. The hosts are 2.0 favourites to get the better of the Finns on Thursday, ahead of the draw at 3.59 and the visitors at 3.79, but the first-leg result and HJK's overall quality suggest that this match could go to the final whistle.
The price suggest a home win should be taken, but with HJK Helsinki winning 3, drawing 1 and losing 1 of their last 5 games, they have the slightly better recent record. In fact, Motherwell have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 in all competitions, which suggests this tie is a battle of equals rather than a potential blowout.
Alfred Johansson has kept Motherwell in shape, and his 4-3-3 or 4-1-4-1 shape should allow the home side to keep things compact when they need to and spring forward when the game opens up. HJK are a possession team with a good ability to break lines and create a few in wide areas. Joonas Rantanen's side like to overload the wide areas, rotate the ball short and keep teams in their own box.
Midfield battles could rule the day
Motherwell's bite in transition should make this a tough encounter, with the Scottish Premiership side able to hit hard when they catch HJK out of position. However, Rantanen's men should have more control in midfield, and their 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 shape allows for some lovely combinations to be played on the wings.
Teemu Pukki is the danger man, with 3 of his side's 10 goals in their last 5 competitive games coming off his boot, while Lukas Fadinger has a similar impact for Motherwell, with 2 goals in their 3 UEFA Conference League Qualification matches.
Under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.9 for Thursday's game, which is a decent price considering the way these two sides have played to date. However, both teams to score at 1.72 looks a better bet, with a 1-1 draw the safest of the scoreline options.
