- New York Red Bulls have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five matches.
- Nashville SC have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five, but they seem to have a higher ceiling after the 4-1 home win over Atletico de San Luis.
- Sam Surridge has been in prolific form for Nashville SC, netting three of his team's seven goals in their last five games.
Surridge can make the difference in clash of styles
Nashville SC come into their MLS 2026 game against New York Red Bulls on Wednesday as the slight favourites at 32/25, but the Red Bulls can be had at 17/10 and the draw at 14/5. That tells us that there should be a tight game in New York and suggests that the market thinks Nashville have a little more about them at the moment.
New York have won twice, drawn once and lost twice in their last five with two of the last three results showing the wobble quite clearly - a 3-0 defeat at Philadelphia Union, a 0-2 home defeat to Charlotte FC and a 0-2 home win over Orlando City.
Ibrahim Sekagya has been in charge of RBNY since 2nd July 2022 and has stayed true to the club's identity - all-action pressing, quick recycling of the ball, players flooding the box on turnovers and a general high-energy pace to the game. Michael Bradley has come in late in 2025 and has made some moves that should make them a little more press-and-possession with Red Bulls aggression.
Nashville’s shape-shifting makes them a dangerous opponent
B.J. Callaghan has been in charge at Nashville since 22nd July 2024 and has seemingly made them a more pragmatic outfit with some shape-shifting and fast vertical transitions that can punish teams that overcommit to their own attacks. Nashville will look to counter-punch RBNY and if they can get men behind the ball in time, they will have some joy.
Nashville SC have won six, drawn two and lost only two of their last 10 in all competitions, losing 0-1 at home to Leon in the CONCACAF Leagues Cup 2026/2027 in the game before last week's 4-1 response.
New York Red Bulls have won just two of their last six at Sports Illustrated Stadium, drawing one and losing three. They score an average of 1.33 goals per game at home while conceding an average of 2.00 per game, so there is plenty of scope for both teams to get on the scoresheet in this game.
The visitors' away record in all competitions is one win, one draw and one defeat with five goals in three matches, so this game looks like it is going to be an end-to-end scrap. The market makes it plain what it thinks with Over 2.5 goals at 1/2 and BTTS: Yes at 21/50.
Nashville have the edge
We think the draw at 14/5 looks too big, but with Nashville favoured we will still play it safe and take the visitors to edge what should be a close and exciting affair. Sam Surridge is their main man, having struck 11 goals in 12 MLS 2026 games, so if you need a goalscorer pick, take him to net on Wednesday.
