- Portsmouth are unbeaten in their last two home matches
- Stoke are unbeaten in their last two away matches
- Pompey have won three, drawn one and lost two at home in the Championship 2026/2027, averaging 1.67 goals both scored and conceded per game
Pompey have home edge and head-to-head edge
Portsmouth should edge a close match when in-form Stoke visit Fratton Park on Saturday in a game where the draw is not as likely as it appears. The home side, who are 33/25 favourites, are just a shade above The Potters, who are 99/50, with the draw at 9/4 being the third favourite.
Marko Milovanovic is Pompey's top scorer with just two goals in five Championship 2026/2027 appearances, making him their main target man in the penalty box. John Mousinho has added more of a direct dimension to Pompey's play since taking over as manager in January 2023, but they can also play with a lot of patience and build from the back when required.
Pompey have won two of the last three head-to-head meetings in the Championship 2025/2026, with the other coming when they took three points from a 3-1 win away at Stoke. Pompey have averaged 1.5 goals per game at home to Stoke in the four previous meetings in all competitions while The Potters have only managed 1.0.
Stoke can hurt teams with Galbraith’s ability
Stoke, who sit in seventh with 23 points from 13 games, have the advantage in the standings at present, but Portsmouth are only four points behind in 11th and can still finish in the top half.
Mark Robins, who has done a good job in the Potteries since taking charge in January 2025, has made The Potters much more aggressive defensively while also keeping their transitions slick. Ethan Galbraith has been a star for Stoke, providing three goals and three assists in the Championship 2026/2027 - so he is the team's main threat as both a finisher and a creator.
Stoke's three-at-the-back system relies on the wing-backs to get up and down the line, so this should be a central-control battle on Saturday. Portsmouth are also a 4-3-3 team that can switch to a 4-2-3-1 when needed, but I don't think either side has enough to really break through the other's defense for a goal.
Draw looks possible but Pompey have the edge
Ben Wilmot has chipped in with two of Stoke's six goals in their last five matches and can provide a threat from set pieces and at the heart of The Potters' backline.
The best odds on offer for this game make it look like a slight favourite for Portsmouth and, in some ways, it is. Stoke are in excellent form, coming into this game with three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five, but Pompey are also going well with three and two respectively.
The visitors' last two results saw them record a 1-0 win at Derby County followed by a 2-0 home win over Preston, but Portsmouth are undefeated in their last two at Fratton Park - so they are not an easy team to rattle. I still think the home edge gives them the slight advantage in this clash, but it will be close and the value lies with Under 2.5 goals at 7/10.
