- Recent form: Italy have won four of their last five competitive matches and are playing at home.
- Recent friendlies: Northern Ireland have drawn one and lost two of their three recent friendly matches.
- Head-to-head: Italy have historically dominated this fixture, though Northern Ireland held them to a goalless draw in their last clash during World Cup 2022 qualifying.
Italy to dominate if Northern Ireland don’t frustrate
Italy should dominate their World Cup play-off semi-final with Northern Ireland in Bergamo this Thursday as long as Michael O’Neill’s men can’t frustrate Gennaro Gattuso’s side for long enough.
The winner of this game will face another side for a place in the Path A final - and the World Cup, while the loser will end their campaigns with a heartbreaking whimper in front of an expected small away contingent in the Stadio Atleti Azzurri d’Italia.
Italy will be at the top of their game with their passionate home support behind them and are deservedly favored by the bookmakers at 1.29 to win this game. There is certainly a gulf in quality between the teams with the Azzurri ranked 13th in the world by Fifa and Northern Ireland 69th as of January 2026.
Gianluigi Donnarumma, who captains Italy, can inspire his team with some big-time game-time saves and a few moments of coolness under pressure.
Northern Ireland are underdogs for a reason
Defensive resilience
O’Neill has fashioned a solid, compact side that can be very tough to crack when they sit deep in a defensive block and make the most of set pieces and quick counter attacks. The Irish have shown grit and a degree of a goal threat in their recent 1-1 draw with Switzerland, but were torn apart by Sweden in a 5-1 loss and were not able to match Denmark’s quality in a 2-1 defeat.
Northern Ireland captain Conor Bradley will have to be a key playmaker on the attacking end of transitions if the Irish are to cause an upset. Jamal Lewis and Terry Devlin will provide some grit and set-piece threat to the defence and midfield respectively, but the loss of central defender Daniel Ballard through injury is a huge blow to the Green and White Army’s chances.
Italy’s attacking threat
Italy have a long history of playing a high-tempo, attacking game in which they look to win the ball high up the field, press aggressively and transition into attack quickly. Gattuso has brought a fire and tactical flexibility to the role of Italy manager since taking charge in June 2025 with the side having won four of their five World Cup qualifiers.
Mateo Retegui has been Italy’s biggest threat up front, having scored multiple times in recent qualifiers, but they will benefit from the addition of Giacomo Raspadori and Moise Kean, who have also found the net in recent qualifiers.
Italy can win with room to spare
Northern Ireland reached this World Cup play-off through their Nations League ranking, so they are rightful underdogs in this play-off match with Italy, who are still trying to avoid missing their third straight World Cup. An Italian win to nil and 2-0 is the preferred result and score prediction because it would be a massive upset if the visitors won or even took a point.
Northern Ireland’s gameplan is to frustrate Italy with a well-drilled defensive block and take their chances when they get them - but Italy are full of firepower and have the squad depth and tactical versatility to eventually find a breakthrough.
- Take Under 2.5 goals at 2.0 and BTTS - No at 1.57 as a top wager for the game, although the chances of it finishing 0-0 are lower than the odds suggest.
- Italy have scored at least three goals in three of their last four comp games, but also conceded in three of those fixtures.
- Cool weather with strong winds could also help the visitors by disrupting set pieces and long balls.
