Amarante FC

vs

Vitoria Guimaraes B

Tips, Stats and Odds

Amarante FC are just a point behind group leaders Vitória B in the tight Liga 3 Promotion Group table at the beginning of March 2026 with three points potentially to swap places at the top of the division or get one step closer to direct promotion. The bookmakers think Amarante are the most likely to win with odds of 2.52 on Sunday, but Vitória B are still very close at 3.02 with the draw at 2.9.

The odds reflect the fact that there is little to separate the two teams, but the stats show that there is some value in the draw as these two are the top two in a very congested top of the table where one game can shake up the order.

Amarante coach Eurico Couto has built a strong, compact and pragmatic side with a back three that sits deep and is difficult to penetrate. They are a long way from being the most technically proficient or highest-scoring side in the league, but their ability to create and hit on set pieces and strike on the break can be very productive.

Roger Almeida is the creative engine of the team and also the penalty taker, and he has provided key assists and a late set-piece contribution in recent Promotion Group matches.

Vitória B have played some great soccer on their travels in the Promotion Group and will look to dominate the ball on this trip to Amarante as well. António Torres Campos took over from Gil Lameiras, who moved up to the first team, and has continued the academy’s philosophy of playing with the ball, pressing aggressively and creating chances in transition.

The visitors will try to break through with one or two players running at Amarante’s back three, as Guilherme Paula and Rodrigo Duarte have done in recent wins at Mafra (2-1) and at home to Varzim (3-0). But they have also shown vulnerability in losing at Académica (1-0) and drawing 2-2 at Belenenses, so it may be a nervy game.

The bookmakers are very confident there will be under 2.5 goals at 1.44, which seems likely to land given both teams have been involved in low-scoring, close-margin games in their recent fixtures. But Vitória B have a slightly higher goal tally than Amarante, with Miguel Nogueira in form as their striker and likely to be their biggest threat. Tiago Ventura and Jordan Saint-Louis have chipped in with some crucial goals for Amarante, particularly on the road against top opposition.

Backing the underdog might be the way to go in a game in which the visitors are likely to dominate possession against a team that likes to sit deep and absorb pressure. But Amarante are no pushovers and are more likely to nick a result than their opponents if they can stay in the game.

There is no doubt that this game could be cagey in parts, but the warm, sunny weather forecast for match day should help the more technical players and offer the prospect of a game of transitions. The most probable outcome is probably a 1-1 draw in a match that either side can win if their best players find the right service in the few clear opportunities they will get.

Amarante have no major injury concerns, but Vitória B will be without José Guilherme Ribeiro according to their latest report.