- Head-to-head: The recent H2H record suggests this will be a close game, with Belenenses winning three of the last six, Caldas taking just one and two finishing all square.
- Team form: Belenenses are coming off a mixed bag of results that includes a 5-1 preseason loss to Benfica, a 7-1 win over Torreense U23 and a 0-0 draw with SC Farense.
- Caldas form: Caldas finished the 2026-2027 Liga 3 campaign with a run of one win from their last five competitive games and conceded seven goals in that run.
Belenenses begin with a bang
CF Os Belenenses are favored at 1.72 to open their Liga 3, Group B 2026-2027 campaign with a win at home to Caldas SC on Saturday, but the visitors, priced at 4.82, and the draw, 3.25, can both make a case to be taken into account for this promotion-chasing derby.
Gonçalo Brandão's men will be fired up to start off with a victory at the Restelo but Caldas are sure to make things tough for the Lisbon club and, given the market and the history, backing anything other than a slim home victory doesn't make much appeal. The draw is there to be avoided.
Belenenses come into this season in mixed form, but there is a positive feel to their preparations ahead of Caldas' arrival at the weekend.
Brandão’s Belenenses will be tough to crack
Warm-up results
A 5-1 loss to a Benfica side was not the ideal warm-up for this game, but their 7-1 pasting of Torreense U23 was a good sign that the Belenenses squad was ready for the new campaign and their end-of-season 0-0 draw with SC Farense was no disgrace.
Pragmatism and tactical shape
That result suggests that Brandão has brought an element of pragmatism to the club that will ensure their promotion push does not run out of steam in the early stages. His side usually line up in either a 4-2-3-1 or a flexible 4-3-3 shape and will look to control the ball and play vertically through the midfield.
Opponent's finish
Caldas finished the last campaign in mixed shape, posting a 4-2 defeat at Mafra, the 2-1 loss to Belenenses, a 2-1 victory at Amora and draws against Lusitano Évora and Sporting Covilhã towards the end of the season.
Caldas’ counter-attacking quality can make the difference
Luís Farinha has been a solid addition to Caldas' attacking line-up, but the double pivot of Duarte Maneta is what gives the game a different dimension. The Caldas midfielders add bite to their attack and they will be ready to pounce on any loose balls and set pieces that land in their box.
João Aguiar's side line up in a compact 4-4-2 shape and are likely to be happy to let Belenenses have the ball in this clash before looking to counter-attack. Belenenses have the extra quality in terms of player depth and can win a close match at home if they remain in good order.
Belenenses should edge this at the Restelo, but the market and the recent H2H show this will be close, so a 1-0 or 2-1 home win seems most likely. Caldas' recent record in this fixture suggests they can score once against their big-city rivals, but it also points to a low-scoring affair, so we will take Under 2.5 goals at 1.62 and Both Teams To Score – No at 1.74.
- Diogo Ferreira will be the backbone of their defense, so the organisation will be key to securing a shutout and a maximum return.
- Wilson Eduardo will be their main box threat, bringing some proven finishing ability to the table.
- Bruninho brings a different pace and directness to Belenenses and, having scored at Estádio da Luz last time out, may have something to offer in this early-season affair.
