- Head-to-head: Lokomotiv have won two of the last three home H2Hs in a row.
- Form: CSKA have lost both of their last two away games (W1, D1, L3 overall).
- Home form: Lokomotiv are unbeaten in four at home (W5, D3, L0 overall).
Moscow derby looks a lot closer on paper
The bookmakers have CSKA in as favorites for this clash at 2.65, with Lokomotiv coming in at 2.67 and the draw at 3.48. That is a little strange given Lokomotiv Moscow have won five, drawn three and lost only two of their last 10 games in all competitions, while CSKA Moscow have won three, drawn three and lost four of their 10.
The hosts are by far the steadier of the two teams at the moment, although they did only manage a 1-1 draw at home to Akhmat Grozny last weekend and were beaten 2-1 away to Dynamo Makhachkala before that. CSKA's 5-2 friendly defeat to Dynamo Moscow is a red flag for punters as is their 1-1 draw against Kryliya Sovetov yesterday as they appeared to have the tenacity of a team coming together, but not yet the fluency.
Lokomotiv have the home edge
Tactical setup and managers:
Dmitriy Igdisamov has taken the Army Men to a more dynamic 4-3-3 system with a front-foot press and more verticality since his appointment in May 2026, but Lokomotiv can make life tough for CSKA by maintaining a compact midfield block and employing situational pressing. Mikhail Galaktionov has kept his Lokomotiv side disciplined and compact since his own appointment in November 2022, with his 4-2-3-1 designed around central control and not allowing the tempo to get away from them.
CSKA's tempo can lead to more turnovers and potential goalmouth action in this derby, but it will also leave room in behind for Lokomotiv to exploit at times.
Home advantage and stats:
- They should have enough of a home advantage to nick this one and avoid defeat at the very least, given CSKA have won one, drawn one and lost three of their five road matches in all competitions, scoring 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60.
- Lokomotiv have won five and drawn three of their eight home games in all competitions, averaging 1.38 goals per game and only conceding 0.25.
Lokomotiv look like a good pick in Draw no Bet market
Lokomotiv won the last H2H at home by a 1-0 score in a Friendly Club Match just two weeks ago to extend a run of tight Moscow derby margins.
This suggests this won't be a dull match and the Over 2.5 and BTTS options at 1.81 and 1.6 respectively look like the best bets. Lokomotiv to Win in Draw no Bet is our top pick at 2.67.
