- Bookmakers: The bookmakers make Gibraltar the favorites at 1.28 and that price is understandable given their home advantage and better recent record.
- FIFA ranking: São Tomé and Príncipe are around 195th with 855 points in the FIFA/Coca-Cola Men's World Ranking, but Gibraltar are only 7 places below them in 202nd place with 820 points.
- Recent friendlies: Gibraltar beat Cayman Islands 4-1 and US Virgin Islands 4-0 in their last two senior friendlies.
São Tomé and Principle are a step down for the Lions
Match context:
The bookmakers are right to make Gibraltar the clear favorites against São Tomé and Príncipe, the two countries playing their first-ever senior international matchup on Wednesday, but we feel a wager on the underdog makes more sense here. Gibraltar are 1.28 to win for a number of reasons, not least that their recent results in competitive matches have been patchy to say the least.
Los Llanis were beaten 1-0 by Latvia in their UEFA Nations League play-off game at the back end of last month, while they were also beaten by Czech Republic and Montenegro in their final two World Cup qualifiers in November. Los Llanis did, however, beat Cayman Islands 4-1 and US Virgin Islands 4-0 in their two most recent senior friendlies and have enough talent to see off the group.
Tactics and key players:
Ricardo Monsanto's team are more of a possession-based side than their opponents, but they look vulnerable to be broken down when forced deep and under pressure, which is what we expect to happen here.
São Tomé have had a mixed-to-poor run of results in their most recent competitive fixtures, conceding in bunches and not scoring often enough to stay in games.
Both teams to score is narrowly priced either way and the draw looks overpriced, so we're going to take the sensible alternative, which is Gibraltar to win and under 3.5 goals.
This should suit Wiseman's side and a home win by a score line of 2-0 or 2-1 should be the most likely outcome.
- Scott Wiseman has a pragmatic 4-3-3 that is compact and can hurt teams with wide pace and set pieces – and he has the squad to be close to full strength in this Europa Point test.
- Banda is Gibraltar's last line of defence, a shot-stopper and organiser who keeps them in control without overstretching his side, while Nicholas Pozo is the spark in the middle.
- De Barr is the real danger to the opposition when the transitions happen, but as São Tomé and Príncipe's big goal threat is striker Luís Leal, who has 11 international goals and the captaincy, their supporting cast will need to be sharp on the counter and from set pieces.
