- Team form: KuPS are undefeated in their last 5 matches (W4, D1) and have won 4 in a row.
- Home form: KuPS have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 home matches across all competitions.
KuPS looking to build on solid away victory
Market:
KuPS Palloseura come into this game as favorites at 2.08, with Vardar set at 3.05 and the draw at 3.63. The market seems to be in agreement with us that the Finns are the most likely to advance, and we will be on KuPS to back up their 2-0 victory in the reverse fixture. Vardar will certainly be in the game and the underdog price of 3.05 is too short for our taste.
KuPS:
KuPS boss Miika Nuutinen has done an excellent job since taking the reigns on 1st January 2026 and his side have found some real momentum of late. They are a proactive side that will set up with a flexible 4-man backline and either a 4-2-3-1 or narrow 4-3-3 depending on the game. They like to get the ball down and play with it, but are also capable of making the quick vertical runs that allow them to attack with real pace on the break when they win it back. It's a fresh setup that has KuPS looking like the real deal right now.
Vardar:
Vardar boss Cristian Fabbiani has made a fine start to his reign since being appointed on the 1st July 2026. Vardar are a compact side that will look to keep it tight and cause damage on the counter attack. They will line up in either a 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-1-1, with the main focus on structure, discipline and getting their runners wide onto the ball.
Finns can squeeze through
This really is a classic clash of styles between a possession side and a counter-punching side and we're taking the Finns to edge it. The value for KuPS is not spectacular, but they have handled Vardar brilliantly well in the first leg and look better equipped to win this matchup.
The draw price is short enough to avoid, but there is some value in over 2.5 goals at 1.81 and both teams to score at 1.63, so we're expecting this to open up early on.
- Nuutinen's men have won 7 of their last 10 across all competitions (D2, L1) and 4 in a row heading into this, while they are 3-1-1 at home over the same period.
- Vardar have also been flying with 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 10, but their 2-0 loss in the 1st leg has knocked them off their stride.
- Goran Zakaric has 4 goals in Vardar's last 5 matches and will be their best outlet here, but KuPS's Bob Nii Armah has been their main man so far in UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026 with 1 goal in 1 match.
