- Team form: Newport County have won two of their last three matches at Rodney Parade, the most recent a 2-1 win over Harrogate Town.
- Away record: Oldham have won eight, tied six and lost eight of their 22 League Two road games, conceding an average of just 1.05 goals per game on the road.
- Previous meeting: Oldham won 3-0 at home to Newport in League Two five months ago.
Oldham could outgun County in a physical game
Oldham Athletic’s away record in League Two is not great, but they have an excellent chance of upsetting the odds to claim all three points at Rodney Parade on Saturday.
The Latics have won only one, tied one and lost three of their last five in the fourth-tier, but they are a tough, physical team who can get the better of struggling Newport County.
Micky Mellon’s side, who sit 11th in the league with 65 points from 44 matches, have suffered consecutive defeats away to Shrewsbury Town and Barrow in League Two.
The Latics will be looking to overrun the home side with their wing-backs, high-press, route-one style while Newport are a more pragmatic side that focuses on staying compact and transitioning quickly. Christian Fuchs’ men have been particularly good at it, but only have the physical presence of Nathaniel Opoku, who has six goals in 30 appearances, up top, so Oldham can match up well.
Lively wing-backs and physical midfield should decide
Latics’ Jamie Robson is Oldham’s most lively attacking force, providing three assists and one goal in his last five appearances, but the Latics’ main goal threat is Mike Fondop-Talum, who has eight goals in 40 league games this season.
Tactics and betting
Oldham should win this matchup if their form holds up, and it could well be on the back of the wing-backs and full-backs who play crucial roles in both teams’ systems.
- Both sides play with three at the back, so a physical midfield battle should be a feature of this clash.
- Oldham’s recent head-to-head dominance over Newport and their much superior standing in the table leads me to lean towards an away win in this encounter, although County’s decent recent home form means there is little sense in betting on them.
- Newport’s average of 1.59 goals conceded per game at home in League Two is also a concern for Fuchs’ men and the 1.78 odds on under 2.5 match goals looks attractive, while the 1.96 price on ‘Both Teams to Score - No’ is also a very good option.
