- Varazdin form: NK Varazdin have won five of their last ten matches across all competitions (D2, L3).
- Jablonec form: Jablonec have won three of their last ten across all competitions (D1, L6).
- Home form: Varazdin are unbeaten in their last five home games (W3, D2).
Hosts have home field advantage in tight 1st-leg battle
NK Varazdin come into this UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 tie with better form and home field advantage on their side, and that should be enough to earn them a first-leg advantage over Jablonec on Thursday. Nikola Safaric has done a fine job at the Croatian club since taking over in December 2023, and his Varazdin side appear organised, compact and dangerous in transition, playing to a 4-2-3-1 system.
The 1-1 home draw with NK Lokomotiva Zagreb that preceded these two wins will give Varazdin's side confidence of getting something from this game, and they should certainly be able to keep the scores level if needed.
Odds don’t quite reflect the situation in the stands
Bookmakers and market
The odds for this match don't look quite right with Varazdin the slight favourites at 2.49, Jablonec a distant second at 2.75 and the draw third at 3.55. However, the BTTS line at 1.7 is just as live, so we're going to take the under 2.5 goals angle at 1.88 in what looks set to be a tight, tactical battle.
Form and recent results
Kozel has led the club since July 2024 and he has kept things pretty tight, with a solid back-three base, wing-backs that provide width and a direct counter-punching style when out of possession.
- The Green and Whites have won their last two matches – a 2-0 away win at Vukovar 1991 and a 2-0 home win over NK Istra 1961 Pula, and they should be able to dominate this game at home by overloading the midfield and hitting Jablonec with vertical runs from central areas.
- Jablonec come into this clash in mixed to poor form after a 5-0 away defeat to Viktoria Plzen, a 1-3 home loss to MFK Karvina in the Czech Cup and a 2-1 win over Slovan Liberec in the 1. Liga Championship Group.
Varazdin have more of a go in this contest
This has all the ingredients of a tight European qualifier and there's certainly going to be an element of each club trying to secure an advantage for the second leg, but our fancy here is that Varazdin have just a little bit more to this contest and they can use their home crowd to good effect.
Varazdin have scored seven goals in their last five home matches across all competitions, which is a good return for a team that controls the game more than they score goals, and they should be ahead after 90 minutes on Thursday.
