- Home form: Thor Akureyri are on a 3-game losing streak at home in the Besta deild karla.
- Away form: Valur Reykjavik have won just 1 of their last 3 away games in the Besta deild karla.
Thor’s new system is showing some promise
Match context
Valur Reykjavik are the strong favorites to beat Thor Akureyri on Sunday, as they should be considering they're 5th in the Besta deild karla 2026 with 16 points from 12 games, and the home side are 11th with just 7 points after 11 games. However, the home team will be confident that they can give the visitors a real run for their money, especially given they've beaten Valur in their last two meetings.
Tactical setups
Sigurdur Heidar Hoeskuldsson has set up a pragmatic system at Thor that is clearly defensive in nature, with players sitting deep and remaining compact and organised when out of possession, while also being disciplined enough to exploit space on the break via fast counters, turnovers or set pieces. Valur boss Hermann Hreidarsson has opted for a far more ambitious 4-2-3-1 setup which focuses heavily on high-pressing, wide overloads and a high-tempo game plan which forces errors. In order to be successful, Valur will need to control the pace and win the ball in the opponent's half.
High-scoring game likely
Valur are the favourites for this matchup at 1.79, but Thor are available at 3.49 for what would be a huge surprise. While the last two games in this fixture have favoured the hosts, the difference in league positions, the recent form and especially the different approaches to the game makes us lean towards the higher-placed side to come out on top in an end-to-end game.
As such, we're going with a high-scoring affair with Over 2.5 goals coming in at a short, but fair price of 1.23.
- Valur have won just 1 of their last 5 Besta deild karla games (D1, L3) but Thor are in even worse form with 4 losses and 1 draw from their last 5 in the league.
- Thor have won just 1 of their 5 home games in the Besta deild karla, conceding 10 goals, and Valur have won 2 of their 5 away games, losing the other 3 and conceding 9 goals – an average of 1.8 per game.
- Valur have been fantastic going forward recently and Tryggvi Hrafn Haraldsson is on fire, scoring 6 goals in his last 4 Besta deild karla appearances, 3 of which came in Valur's last 4.
- Thor will counter with Agust Hlynsson, who has netted 2 goals in his last 3 league appearances, 2 of which were the team's last 3 goals.
