- Rankings: Vietnam are 99th in the FIFA men's rankings, 77 places above Chinese Taipei, who are 176th in the world.
- Recent form: Vietnam have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five internationals, scoring seven and conceding seven.
Vietnam are value enough at 2/5
Market view
Vietnam are strong favorites against a Chinese Taipei side that is in poor touch, which is why we are shying away from the win market where The Golden Star Warriors are a strong favorite. However, the value that is on offer about the goals markets more than makes up for the short odds on the hosts. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score no at 1.38 is a play on the home win and a game that should remain controlled in favor of the home team.
Form and head-to-head
A trip to take on Sri Lanka was hardly the toughest assignment for Chinese Taipei in June, yet Matt Ross's side shipped at least two goals for the fifth successive international. The Blue Wings set up more conservatively than usual for that match in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but will surely have to sit compact against Vietnam and look to pounce on the break if they are to survive the initial barrage.
The gulf in class between these nations is there for all to see in their FIFA men's ranking of 99th for Vietnam compared to 176th for Chinese Taipei. Vietnam have three wins and a draw in the four previous meetings, scoring 11 times and allowing just four.
Vietnam should carry the game
Kim Sang-sik's men have won their first two games in charge 4-2 against Pakistan and 1-0 against the Philippines and lost their next two against Malaysia and Thailand at the FIFA ASEAN Cup. The latter two results are not too concerning as they were against much higher-ranked opposition, but a lack of a clinical edge was evident when his side beat the Philippines 1-0 after a slow start.
Vietnam's best chance for a goal will come from carrying the ball and pressing high up the pitch, and they should pin Chinese Taipei back and dominate in possession. The visitors will have to come out on the counter attack if they are to have any joy in the match, and with their opponents in poor form, that should suit the hosts.
- Nguyễn Đình Bắc is Vietnam's most likely source of a goal after his goal and two assists against Pakistan proved he can make an impact as a super-sub or a starter.
- Olaha Mạnh Đức looks to be a new No.9 option after his winner for Công an TP.HCM in the V-League and Trần Ngọc Sơn and Nguyễn Quang Vinh come into camp on the back of three apiece after six rounds of domestic action.
Taiwan can score in a losing cause
Chinese Taipei are so out of form that they will be looking to their captain Chen Po-liang for leadership if they are to get something from this game and the goals stats also suggest there is value in a home win with both teams to score no. Chinese Taipei have scored in each of the last four meetings between the sides, but we think the last one in 2017 is not a fair reflection of current trends and that the visitors are in a bad spell right now.
So while the likeliest script for this match is a Vietnam win, we cannot quite get on board at the short price. The value is in the over 2.5 goals wager as we expect the host nation to dominate possession and create enough chances to win if the game remains relatively even. We are also going for both teams to score no as we don't see Chinese Taipei scoring even if they keep it tight at the back and Vietnam fails to dominate.
