- Dinamo Tirana have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten all-competition matches and are not quite cruising.
- Aluminij have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten all-competition games and have not been convincing recently.
- Dinamo Tirana have conceded only four goals in four home games (W1, D2, L1), Aluminij are averaging just 0.33 goals per away game.
Dinamo have structure, Aluminij have wingers
There's a classic knockout feel about Thursday's UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 clash at Elbasan Arena in Albania with Dinamo set up to be solid and Aluminij possessing plenty of pizzazz on the wings. The winners will be determined by whoever comes out on top in transitions and which team gets the better of the other in a chess match in midfield.
Ilir Daja has been in charge of the Albanian side since 11 September 2024 and he has brought a European feel to Dinamo with a 4-2-3-1 system that sets up with a disciplined double pivot and live number 10 to control the middle and pounce when Aluminij overcommit themselves. Hekuran Berisha is Dinamo's sharpest edge, but with only two goals in three UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 appearances, he is not going to scare anyone.
Aluminij have a young coach at the helm too, with Jura Arsic at the controls since 17 June 2024. His team has adopted a 3-4-3 system that relies on overloading the wing-back areas with wide forwards and then rotating them, but it can leave a gap behind if not managed correctly. Matic Vrbanec is the Slovenian side's most dangerous player, having scored once in his one UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 appearance so far.
Back the hosts to get the win, but don’t ignore the draw
Dinamo are available at 1.67 favourites here and that price seems a bit low considering Aluminij are 4.45 and the draw at 3.85. The visitors have been on a two-game draw streak, but lost 0-1 to Sheriff before that and are now three games without a win (D2, L1).
Dinamo have more to gain in this game and will push for it, but their recent form is strong enough to raise eyebrows. Their 1-4 extra-time win at FC Astana was followed up with a solid 1-1 away draw to Aluminij in the first leg of this tie.
Dinamo have been undercooked at home, losing their most recent game at this ground and going 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss in their four most recent games at Elbasan Arena (W1, D2, L1). Aluminij have been cagey and unimpressive on their travels, avoiding defeat in only one of their latest two road games (D1, L1).
So the hosts look the more likely to nick it, but the first-leg draw and odds-on price scream a close, low-scoring qualifying scrap. Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 and Both Teams To Score - No at 1.93 are the main selections.
