- New York Red Bulls are the in-form team (3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats) but Orlando City have been sharper overall (6 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats) over the last 10.
- New York Red Bulls have played 6 home games in all competitions this season, winning 1, drawing 2 and losing 3.
- Orlando City have won 3 and lost 3 of their 6 away league games in all competitions, but their attack has travelled well, scoring 2.67 goals per away match.
Red Bulls and Lions to get stuck in at Sports Illustrated
New York Red Bulls have their work cut out to shake off their poor home form when they take on in-form Orlando City SC on Saturday. The hosts are the slight favourites at 1.9, but Orlando are still a big price at 3.2 and the draw is available at a big 4.3.
The Red Bulls have lost their last two matches, going down 3-0 at Philadelphia Union and then 0-2 at home to lowly Charlotte FC. They have now won only 3 of their last 10 matches in all competitions, with 2 draws and 5 defeats.
That is a real dip in results and suggests that this game is not a foregone conclusion for the home side. Orlando City are on a better run, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 and the defeat was their 6-2 blowout at FC Cincinnati.
Faces in the crowd
The Lions followed that up with a 4-0 away win at San Jose Earthquakes and should arrive full of confidence. Martín Perelman has made them a little more direct since he took over on 12 March 2026, but they have maintained the shape and defensive discipline that marked the previous regime.
There is no doubting that this is a contrast in styles. New York Red Bulls play a narrow, high-tempo game, either 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, where they press hard to get the ball back in the center of the park. Orlando City are more width-focused and flexible, allowing their full-backs to push forward and using their quick one-twos to unlock defences.
Ibrahim Sekagya has been trying to marry the Red Bulls' usual intensity with more ball control in 2026, but the result has been conceding 2.33 goals per home match, which looks certain to be the case again on Saturday. The best home bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.3, but we like Both teams to score at the same price even better because both defences have been leaking in all competitions.
Ojeda can make the difference
New York Red Bulls have conceded 2.33 goals per home game in all competitions this year and are scoring 1.50 per home match, which suggests the floodgates could open on both sides of the ball at Sports Illustrated Stadium, USA. The Lions are conceding 2.83 per away game and could be dragged into a shootout with their hosts.
Orlando have enough quality to win this game and their recent run of form suggests they will not panic if they fall behind early. Since New York Red Bulls are slight favourites, we are taking the draw as the safest play in the match result market.
Martin Ojeda can be Orlando City's killer at the other end of the pitch - the Argentinean is the team's danger man and its leading scorer in MLS 2026 with 11 goals in 15 games.
