- Flora Tallinn's 5-game form is W2, D1, L2, drawing 2-2 away to FC Iberia 1999 in UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026 and losing 1-2 at home to JK Nomme United in Meistriliiga 2026.
- The New Saints lost 0-2 away to Sabah FK and 1-2 at home to Sabah FK in UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026.
Flora will try to stretch the pitch and keep it on the floor
Flora Tallinn are the clear favourites for this UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 first-leg clash with The New Saints of Wales, but it's closer than the market odds suggest at 2.06 with the draw at 3.75 and the visitors at 3.38. The New Saints will be fresh off a 2-game losing run after going down 0-2 away and 1-2 at home to Sabah FK in UEFA Champions League Qualification 2026, but they are a very experienced European outfit who will be in no mood to fold in Estonia on Thursday.
Flora's 5-game record of W2, D1, L2, suggests there is some upside to the hosts' game, but there's also plenty of wobble, particularly in defence where they have conceded 2.50 goals per-game at home in all current competitions. Konstantin Vassiljev's men have conceded ten goals in total across their last 4 games at A Le Coq Arena, so that's a red flag for the hosts on their own patch.
The New Saints are a flexible and pragmatic side that are equally capable of playing it simple and stretching the pitch. Craig Harrison's side, who he has managed since 4 August 2022, can also be very sharp in transition and they have a clever burst of pressing play that could get some joy against a Flora side that likes to keep the ball and circulate it patiently to create open spaces.
TNS have a fine away record in all comps
The midfield battle will be pivotal here and the clash of styles should be fascinating as Flora will always try to control the pace of the game and keep the football on the ground. The New Saints, on the other hand, will look to nick the ball high and get forward into the channels in numbers, while they are equally comfortable sitting deep and stifling opposition when out of possession.
Tony Varjund has been their most lively outlet, scoring three goals in the last five matches. He looks their best hope of generating a bit of a spark in the final third.
While the draw seems like a decent option, The New Saints are just too good away from home in all-comps to allow Flora to run away with this contest. Harrison's men have scored 1.83 goals per-game away from home in 2026 and have only conceded 0.67 - which is a tidy away profile that should keep them in control.
A Flora or draw double chance looks good in the match result market, but TNS's away record this season suggests this is more than just a home-bank job and they can certainly spoil the script. Daniel Williams has been in good nick for the Welsh champions, scoring three of his eight goals for the season in their last five and he looks a solid option for an anytime effort here.
