- Aluminij's only two UEFA Europa League qualifying ties have been cagey encounters with FC Sheriff Tiraspol, with the Slovenians not scoring in either of their outings against the Moldovans.
- Dinamo Tirana's two UEFA Conference League qualifying fixtures against FC Astana were a little more dramatic, with the Albanians coming back from 1-0 down at home to win 4-1 away after extra time.
Pragmatic hosts set up to keep it tight
Aluminij set up pragmatically to keep things compact at the back in their first qualifying tie against FC Sheriff and this tie is unlikely to be any different. The hosts, who are the underdogs at 3.12 here, set up in a 4-5-1/4-4-2 shape with five men behind the ball when out of possession and look to break quickly when they win the ball back.
Aluminij have failed to score in their 2 UEFA Europa League qualifiers to date, going down 1-0 at home to the Moldovans after a 0-0 draw away, and their form in all competitions has been a mixed bag recently (W3, D2, L5 from last 10).
A compact back five or 4-4-2/4-5-1 shape will be Aluminij's likely choice again for this contest as they look to frustrate Dinamo Tirana, but it's difficult to assess how much more they can push the Albanian visitors off the game than they did FC Sheriff.
Dinamo to edge it in Slovenia
Dinamo are the slight favourites here at 2.17 and we're taking them to just edge out this qualifying tie, although we have to include the draw at 3.4 to get a bit of value out of the price. 1 win and 4 defeats from their last 5 matches isn't exactly convincing form for Ilir Daja's side, but they average 1.17 goals per game on their travels, so will certainly be capable of making a breakthrough at some point in this clash.
The hosts are in better shape across the season, but Daja's team have a more well defined identity and can be extremely well-drilled and flexible, as they have proved in their opening two Conference League games, where they've employed a 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 system to good effect.
Bruno Dita has led the way for them in qualifying with 1 goal from his 2 appearances so far, but Dinamo will need to grind this out in a similar fashion to their opening tie against Astana, where they didn't manage to carve their way through the opposition on home turf.
Cagey contest in store
This has all the makings of a cagey affair in Slovenia and the match odds don't really make any sense. Dinamo prefer measured possession and press selectively, aiming to control the pace of play. Aluminij will sit back and soak up pressure, so this could turn into a chess match in the middle of the park, where Dinamo should dominate, but Aluminij will be structured and compact through the middle, so we're going with U2.5G at 1.95 in this one.
