- Portugal and Croatia drew 1-1 in the head-to-head a year ago.
- Portugal have scored with authority in their FIFA World Cup group games but shut out Colombia 0-0 last time out.
- Croatia have won their last two games but average 1.80 goals per away game in all competitions.
Portugal are the favourites to win
Roberto Martínez's Portugal are the hot favourites to beat Zlatko Dalić's Croatia in Thursday's FIFA World Cup knockout clash at Toronto Stadium, but they are far from a sure thing.
The draw can be taken at 3.2 with Portugal at 1.85 and Croatia available at 4.0, which feels about right as Croatia can get to Canada with a bite after their last 2 games.
Dalić's side edged Panama 1-0 away from home before beating Ghana 2-1 at home, so they will be feeling good about their chances against this Portuguese side who tend to play their best football when the stakes are highest.
Croatia can be a tough nut to crack
Croatia have seven wins and three defeats in their last 10 matches in all competitions, a sharper run of results than Portugal's 5 wins, 4 draws and only 1 loss across their most recent 10.
And while Martínez has done a fine job since taking charge of the Selecção on January 9th 2023, he has Dalić, who has been in charge since October 7th 2017, to contend with here.
Dalić's team is very compact, with a 4-3-3 that has just enough width to cover the channels and a disciplined press that covers the ball when the opposition are on it and sits compactly when they lose possession.
Portugal will try to pin Croatia deep and then carve them open with clever play, which is what Martinez' men do best, but they can get frustrated when Croatia play it tight and try to keep the game in a cage.
The Selecção are possession-first and have the flexibility to transform from a 4-2-3-1 into a back three when the full-backs fly on, while Croatia will keep the ball in the centre of the field and keep the match in a tight space.
A cagey affair is on the cards
Portugal have only conceded 6 goals in 6 home fixtures in all competitions, so they will keep it tight at the back on Thursday, while Croatia's average of 1.80 goals per game on the road has come from 9 goals scored.
Croatia's away record in all competitions reads 3 wins and 2 defeats in their last 5, so we're happy to take the Under 2.5 goals at 1.62 and Both Teams To Score - No at 1.7 as the main selections here, as this looks like a midfield chess game in which Croatia will try to maintain a block and counterattack rather than a walkover for the European champions.
Portugal and Croatia have each won one and drawn one of their 3 most recent head-to-heads in all competitions, so we're taking the stalemate in the correct score market too.
