- Portugal form: Portugal have won five of their last ten games in all competitions (D4, L1).
- Croatia form: Croatia have won seven of their last ten in all competitions (D0, L3).
- Defensive record: Portugal have conceded just six goals in their six home games across all competitions.
Portugal have the edge in midfield battle
Recent results and tactics
Portugal's latest results in the FIFA World Cup – Group K 2026 saw them beat Uzbekistan 5-0 at home and hold Colombia to a 0-0 draw away, while Croatia had two wins in Group L, edging Panama 1-0 away from home before defeating Ghana 2-1 at home.
Roberto Martínez's Portugal are a very different side to the one that he inherited back in January 2023 and have become possession-first and shape-shifting in recent games, often morphing from a 4-2-3-1 system into a back three with the full-backs flying on.
Momentum and opponents' profile
The Seleção have won three and drawn two of their last five games in all competitions, and will arrive at the Toronto Stadium with momentum in their favour. Portugal have kept things tight at the back for most of this year and have conceded just six times in their home games in all competitions.
Zlatko Dalić's Croatia are equally settled in the driver's seat with two consecutive wins coming into this matchup. Dalić has been in charge of the Croatia national team since October 7, 2017, so there is no shortage of tournament nous in the dugout.
Dalić's side are a compact 4-3-3 side who press selectively and look to keep things tight in the midfield, which could be an intriguing contrast to Portugal's more vertical style.
Croatia could be a difficult opponent
While Portugal certainly come into this game as favourites, Croatia's recent form and the head-to-head makes it seem closer to us than the odds indicate.
Under 2.5 goals at 1.62 and Both Teams To Score – No at 1.7 appeal more for this game than any of the win markets, as this could be a midfield chess match with Portugal trying to break Croatia down with their verticality and Croatia looking to keep it cagey.
- Portugal are listed at 1.85 in this clash, with the draw at 3.2 and Croatia at 4.0.
- Croatia have won three and lost two of their last five away games in all competitions, so they can travel to Canada with bite, and they average 1.80 goals per away game in all competitions, scoring nine goals on the road.
- Croatia and Portugal drew 1-1 in the head-to-head a year ago in UEFA Nations League A, Group 1 2024/2025 and have one win apiece and one draw across the last three meetings in all competitions, which suggests that this one will be close.
