- Germany have been irresistible at home, winning all five of their games across all competitions.
- Paraguay have also played the Group D leaders off well, with a goalless draw with Australia at home.
Germany can unlock the Paraguay defense
Germany can beat Paraguay for a second time in the FIFA World Cup knockout stages, and as they did in 2002, it will be because they have more quality all over the pitch.
Die Mannschaft come into this clash as huge favourites at 1.45 after their 2-1 win over Ivory Coast at home in FIFA World Cup Group E before suffering a 2-1 defeat to Ecuador away.
That's Germany's only defeat in their last 10 matches (W9, D0, L1) and they haven't drawn a game at home, going 5 for 5 (W5, D0, L0) since the end of March.
Julian Nagelsmann has the team playing with a high tempo, getting on the ball in the attacking third and trying to play vertical football with plenty of counter-pressing and overloading of the half-spaces.
Deniz Undav has been their most prolific finisher with five goals during their last five-game run while the team have hit 11 overall, which is more than enough firepower to score a couple of goals against an organized but less attacking Paraguay side.
Underdogs will defend deep
Gustavo Alfaro's team isn't the same as the sides that Germany beat in their only previous World Cup meeting in 2002, but they have been solid, pragmatic and clinical enough to stay in the tournament.
Paraguay beat Turkey 1-0 on the road in Group D and then followed that up with a 0-0 draw at home to Australia.
Alfaro has the Paraguayans sitting deep, keeping things tight, narrow and staying out of trouble, but also looking for counters and set piece opportunities when they can get them.
Paraguay's away form is less impressive than their home form, however, winning just three of their last eight and losing four, so we believe Germany look the more likely winners on Monday.
Their average of 1.12 goals scored per game and 1.62 conceded on the road across all competitions also suggests the visitors could get overrun if they are under pressure for too long in this clash.
Germany have been very good this year, so we're taking them to control the match and win it at a low odds, while Paraguay's compactness should keep it from being a shootout, so we're backing a home win and under 2.5 goals in the match as well as Both Teams To Score - No.
