- Toronto FC are 23rd in MLS 2026 with 24 points from 21 games, NYCFC are 18th with 26 from 20.
- Toronto are unbeaten in two at home with one win and one draw, NYCFC have lost four straight.
- NYCFC concede an average of 1.22 goals per away game in 2026 (nine games: W3, D2, L4), Toronto score and concede 2.00 per home game (11 games: W3, D6, L2).
Toronto can win tight, tense game
Toronto FC will have a few more answers than New York City FC this weekend when the two MLS 2026 strugglers meet in Canada, although it's likely to be a tight, tense contest with chances at both ends of the field. NYCFC are on a four-game losing streak that has seen them fall further down the standings and, although The Reds are in mixed form, they seem more likely to snag the three points at BMO Field.
Pascal Jansen's side were undone at home by Philadelphia Union last weekend, going down 2-3 after a 2-1 defeat to Cincinnati away in their previous fixture. They are playing an aggressive, possession-based system in which they press very high and rotate the ball to play in numbers in the wide areas and half-spaces. It can work really well, but if Toronto can break the press then there will be gaps in which to exploit and Daniel Salloi is a more than capable finisher in these situations.
He has five goals in 21 MLS 2026 appearances and is the Reds' main threat in the box, which is why Toronto have the edge in the counters. Robin Fraser's side have been very compact and pragmatic, playing a 4-2-3-1 that can morph into a back three when needed, and they are usually well-disciplined in how they keep the ball in wide areas and avoid over-committing.
Two struggling clubs, two similar approaches
Toronto are in the middle of a mini-revival with three recent results that are not too shabby for a club: a 2-1 win over New England, a 3-3 draw with Charlotte and a 2-1 away win at Inter Miami. They still have work to do to make the play-offs, but a good result here could give them some momentum.
NYCFC have a much better record away from home this season (W3, D2, L4) and have only conceded an average of 1.22 away goals this term. But they have been in terrible form recently and are not yet in the ascendancy enough to take the three points.
The head-to-head favours the Cityzens, who have won four of the last five meetings, with Toronto failing to win either of their last two at home to their New York visitors. However, the draw is still there to be taken at 3.65, with Toronto 2.4 and Cityzens 2.64.
Both teams to score offers good value
There is still a little bit of a hangover from their 1-1 draw at NYCFC's home ground three weeks ago and we may see another chess-like game this weekend. Both teams to score looks the clean alternative at 1.5, while the 1.62 over 2.5 goals line fits a game with chances at both ends.
