- West Ham are unbeaten in 5 (W2, D3) across all competitions, Burnley have 1 win, 3 draws and 6 defeats from their last 10.
- Burnley have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 home games, West Ham have 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 6 away.
- Burnley have conceded 10 goals across their last 5 home matches (2.00 per game).
No guarantee The Clarets will avoid another relegation battle
The odds tell us this is a close one, with West Ham in as favourites at 13/10 and Burnley not far behind at 46/25, so this game has the look of a tight Championship affair at Turf Moor.
Nicky Hayen has the unenviable task of resetting the club following relegation after taking charge on 10 July 2026. He has tried to ensure the team remain a tight-knit unit, and it has shown in Burnley's style of play so far this term.
The Clarets look for security first and foremost, playing in compact lines, pressing the ball but with patience and always keeping a beady eye on protecting the space behind. It's a far cry from the West Ham we saw last season, and the contrast of these two styles should make this an interesting chess match on Sunday.
Hammers have that wee bit more quality
Nuno Espirito Santo took charge on 27 September 2025 and seems to have installed his own brand of organisation and transition-first football on the Hammers. They play on the front foot, sitting in a structured mid-block before bursting out in fast transitions and wide attacks.
It's a more fluid style of football that suits the talent West Ham have and should give the Hammers the edge in this matchup against an opponent they have dominated in recent times. In the last 4 meetings, The Hammer's have won 3 and drawn once, with Burnley yet to taste victory.
Castellanos to help West Ham take the points
The most recent clash was in the Premier League 2025/2026 season and the visitors won 2-0 away from home. Burnley have failed to win either of their previous 2 at home to the East London outfit and we're expecting the visitors to nick it here.
West Ham have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 across all competitions and they're the form team here. The hosts have 1 win, 3 draws and 6 defeats from the same period and still look a long way off getting their rhythm.
Burnley lost 0-1 to Torino FC in a friendly, before drawing 1-1 at home to Notts County and then winning on penalties in the EFL Cup. With the hosts still difficult to trust at the back, they may need a gritty, low-scoring night to stay in the game.
The draw is priced at 51/20 here, which represents some value. However, over 2.5 goals at 7/10 and BTTS Yes at 3/5 are better bets in this instance, with chances at both ends likely.
Valentin Castellanos is in form for The Hammer's, scoring 3 of his team's 6 goals in their last 5 games, so we're backing him to add to his goal total for the season with a strike in this encounter.
