- Burnley are 14/25 favourites to win this EFL Cup first-round tie, with Notts County 9/2 and the draw 3/1.
- Burnley have failed to win four straight home games across all competitions (3 draws, 1 defeat).
Stick with the Clarets to edge a close affair
Burnley are the big favourites for their EFL Cup 2026-2027 opener against Notts County on Saturday afternoon, but they will be facing a compact and organised Magpies side that are no mugs.
Nicky Hayen has been in charge of Burnley since 10 July 2026 and is encouraging his side to play a dominant, possession-based game. Hayen's side do play faster vertically, but there is plenty of continuity in the 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 set-up, the high full-backs and the counter-press.
The cup tie should suit Notts County as much as Burnley, however, as Martin Paterson has continued to keep a possession-first base since taking over on 22 June 2025. The Magpies have a more pragmatic, compact feel, however, as they offer wing-back width, selective pressing triggers and hit on the counter-attack when the space allows.
County can stay compact and make their mark
These two approaches will likely create a chess match of a cup tie, with Burnley trying to hunt for recoveries and make their pace and power tell in the transitions, while Notts County will try to stay compact and then spring forward.
Burnley are the favourites and it would be churlish to suggest they won't win this game, but Notts County have the structure to make this a close contest and we're sticking with the odds at 9/2.
The hosts will be desperate to get the rot away after seven defeats in their last ten, including a 2-2 draw with RCD Espanyol at home last time out following away defeats to AFC Ajax and Real Salt Lake. The Clarets have been poor and Notts County come into the game on the back of three successive defeats.
Burnley and Over 1.5 goals is the preferred way to go
Our belief in Notts County's ability to make this game close is because they're a structured team that doesn't fall apart like some other third-tier clubs can. They have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten matches across all competitions and have enough quality to suggest they can make a game of this.
A bet on both teams to score is a shade towards 'Yes' at 73/100, but with Burnley likely to step up their attacking play after a frustrating start to the season, we're going with the cleaner option of Burnley and Over 1.5 goals.
Hayen's team have scored 1.25 goals per game and conceded 1.50 at home across all competitions this season, so we're expecting a few chances to come their way at Turf Moor, but also don't rate their defensive stability enough to back Burnley and Under 1.5 goals.
