- Home defence: Burnley have conceded 10 goals across their last 5 competitive home games, an average of 2.00 per game.
- Recent form: West Ham are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (W2, D3).
- Head-to-head: West Ham have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between the sides in all competitions, drawing once (W3, D1).
New managers make for intriguing early-season match
Burnley:
There's no better time to play West Ham than early in the season, and Burnley are under manager Nicky Hayen, who took over on 10 July 2026. His task was simple; reset the club after their relegation by bringing in players and implementing a new style of play.
The Clarets have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their 5 games under Hayen, and with no rhythm yet, it's still hard to trust the new manager to do the job. Burnley haven't won either of their last 2 home games against the Hammers, and their new manager will need to grind out a tight game to stay alive on Sunday.
West Ham:
West Ham's head coach, Nuno Espirito Santo, has had 2 seasons to get his West Ham team up and running. His methodical, transition first style of football has kept the club competitive despite their low-budget status, and his ability to set up and take apart is what gives the Hammers a real edge.
Clarets should be underdogs at home
Burnley's methodical, security first approach has been apparent in their opening games this season, and West Ham have a much more fluid and punchy style, they will set up an organised mid-block and look to spring into life and hurt teams on the break.
That could make for an interesting chess match on Sunday. West Ham are a tough bet at 2.3 to win this game, Burnley are a tiny underdog at 2.84, so this has the feel of a Championship matchup. West Ham have dominated this fixture of late and are in better form, so they should be the likelier side to take the points on the day.
Hammers’ edge should be enough for the win
Nuno's side are unbeaten in their last 5, however, and that edge should be just enough for them to secure the win on their visit to Turf Moor.
I think the draw is the most likely outcome in this game, but West Ham are good value at 2.3 to win the game outright.
Valentin Castellanos has started the season on fire for West Ham, netting 3 of their 6 goals in the opening 5 games, and he will be required to maintain that record if they are to take the victory. I'm going with a West Ham victory, but Burnley's poor home defensive record could make it a cagey game, so the main selections will be West Ham to get a result, a low-scoring game and both teams to score.
- West Ham's recent form is 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats across their last 10 games in all competitions, whilst Burnley have posted 1 win, 3 draws and 6 defeats in the same period.
- West Ham have drawn their last 2 back-to-back away games, against Glasgow Rangers FC (1-1) and 1.FC Magdeburg (1-1) and beat Portsmouth 3-1 in the EFL Cup last time out.
- Burnley's form in 2026/2027 to date is a 0-1 home defeat to Torino FC in a friendly, followed by a 1-1 draw at home with Notts County and then a 4-3 penalty shootout win against them in the EFL Cup.
- West Ham's away record across their last 6 away games in all competitions is (W1, D3, L2), scoring 1.33 goals per game and conceding the same.
- Burnley's home record across their last 5 at Turf Moor is (W1, D3, L1), and they've conceded 10 goals here in the last 5 games at an average of 2.00 goals per game.
