- West Ham are unbeaten in five (W2, D3), with their last two games finishing level.
- Portsmouth have drawn their last two, 1-1 against Farnborough FC and 0-0 with SV Darmstadt 98.
- West Ham are scoring 1.67 goals and conceding 0.67 per home game across all competitions (W2, L1).
Cup tie on the cards
West Ham are rightful favourites to see off Portsmouth at the London Stadium on Saturday, but the 24/5 about the League One side seems extremely generous in the circumstances.
The Hammers are unbeaten in their last five, which isn't quite enough to make them a top-price punt here at 1/2, while the 67/20 about the draw is also unattractive given that Pommies have drawn their last two.
This is a classic clash of styles with West Ham favouring a transition-first approach while Pompey will be compact and look to progress wide.
West Ham have the sting
Nuno Espirito Santo's side are set up to play in a flexible system that can switch between three and four at the back, but always in a way that allows them to control the game.
The Portuguese boss likes his team to be compact in a mid-block and to hit in transition when the game opens up, which gives his side a nasty sting, particularly on the break.
In Valentin Castellanos, who has scored two of West Ham's six goals in their last five games, Nuno has his best player, one that can make a real difference.
Portsmouth have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten in all competitions, which gives them a better record than the Hammers over that period (W3, D4, L3).
Pompey have the edge
John Mousinho's men can be a bit up and down, but they are always well-drilled and have played in an organised fashion since he took over in January 2023.
They play off a basic 4-2-3-1 system and their best moments will always come off the flanks, so the key for them will be to get the ball wide and into the box.
Pompey have conceded ten times in seven away fixtures and will be vulnerable to West Ham's counters if they open this game up, as West Ham did when running out 0-5 winners at Stevenage Borough in the previous round.
If Nuno's side land the first punch, they should have enough to dominate this tie, but Mousinho's Pompey are good enough to keep it close and their defensive organisation makes it seem closer to the bookies' odds than it really is.
A West Ham win with over 2.5 goals looks the best bet on the match, but the odds on the goal markets are a shade short for the value bettor and our selection of Over 2.5 at 11/20 and BTTS: Yes at 13/20 looks a little closer to fair.
