- Recent form: USA have won three and lost two of their last five matches (T2). Their recent home record is five wins, one draw and four losses from ten (W5, D1, L4).
- Away form: Paraguay have won two and lost three of their last five games (D0). Their away record in the same period is two wins and three defeats (D1).
- Tactics: USA are a possession-based side who attack with full-backs and high-tempo midfield rotations in a 4-3-3 that often morphs into a 4-2-3-1 formation.
USA to squeeze out opener in what should be a close affair
The USA have not looked their best of late, although they are a high-tempo team who are more suited to playing in front of large crowds and the expectation should play to their advantage when they kick off the tournament on home turf against Paraguay on Saturday.
Mauricio Pochettino's men, who beat Paraguay 2-1 at home during the Friendly International Matches 2024/2025 campaign, have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten in all competitions.
There is a pattern to their play, but there is a positive trend developing from September 2024 when Poch arrived on their shores and implemented a more proactive, possession-based system that allows his star athletes to excel.
USA are high-pressers and create plenty of chances in the attacking third by moving the ball quickly and rotating players into advantageous positions. They will need to keep that up to beat a defensively disciplined Paraguay side who are adept at frustrating possession-based teams.
Paraguay are a pragmatic team who can snatch games on the counter
Recent record and approach
Gustavo Alfaro's men have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten games, so they have a less impressive record than their opponents, but they are a lot less positive in their approach to matches.
Match-up, form and outlook
So we have a classic, and almost polar opposite, head-to-head matchup between an energetic, possession-based USA and a patient, pragmatic Paraguay on Saturday.
The under 2.5 goals bet is available at 1.63 and probably offers the best value in this fixture with Paraguay expected to sit in and frustrate the hosts.
But USA have the better overall record at home, and more recent form to go with that edge, so we'll take them to nick this tense, tactical opener at the odds of 2.04.
- They have won some games and drawn others with a pragmatic approach, most recently beating Mexico 2-1 away from home and Greece 1-0 away, but they also lost to Morocco 2-1.
- The home side should get some kind of advantage from the crowd, but they are rarely reliable and, as we saw in their recent 3-2 win at home to Senegal and 0-2 defeat to Portugal, they can lose focus at times and gift teams possession.
- Paraguay are the outsiders at 3.94 while the draw is 3.5.
