Auckland FC

vs

Adelaide United FC

Tips, Stats and Odds

Auckland FC and Adelaide United FC are well accustomed to meeting in the A-League playoffs and will be well prepared for one another when they meet on Saturday for a spot in the Grand Final. The home side, which was full of grit and determination to see off Melbourne City in a penalty shootout last weekend, are unbeaten in their last four matches and have drawn three of their last five.

While Adelaide United will travel across the Tasman Sea in great shape to take on the Kiwis, having finished the regular season on a high with three wins and two draws in their final five. These two clubs have played out four high-scoring, close A-League matches across the past two seasons with three draws and one win apiece. The most recent head-to-head meeting between these two finished 1-1 at Coopers Stadium.

With the hosting rights to the Grand Final up for grabs as well as a place in the showpiece event, this first leg is likely to be a cagey one. The visitors will surely be eager to take a result back to Australia and the momentum of their late-season surge is difficult to ignore. But Auckland’s home form, defensive grit and the shootout momentum of last weekend may be enough to see them through.

Auckland will need to be in top shape to stop the on-rushing Adelaide attackers.

Auckland are priced at 1.99 and Adelaide at 3.66, which is understandable given the hosts have home advantage. But we feel these odds are too narrow for a semi-final encounter where a one or two-goal result for either side is the most likely outcome.

Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 is a generous price given the history of this fixture and the two teams’ need to get on the scoresheet on Saturday. The weather forecast at Go Media Stadium is mild and mostly dry, so there should be plenty of flow to the game and aerial contests that both sides like to use.

Steve Corica’s A-League Coach of the Year award-winning team are a compact, disciplined and well-drilled unit who will look to win the ball back in their own half to counter-attack in numbers from the wings. They have ridden their luck at times during the campaign, but Corica has been persistent in his praise of their tactical approach and ability to grind out wins.

Adelaide have been full of youth and vigour under Airton Andrioli, who has installed an ability to press in waves and also sit back and keep it tight in a flexible mid-block. They have found their attacking rhythm in the closing stages of the season, when Jovanović and his forwards have been on the mark and their young talent have stepped up.

Sam Cosgrove’s involvement will be key for Auckland on Saturday as a joint A-League Golden Boot winner, but his recent injury means his impact may be limited.

The battle in midfield and who controls the pace of the game will be crucial to this first-leg clash between a hard-to-get-at Auckland side and a patient, attacking Adelaide side. A draw would suit both teams better than a defeat and the value in the draw double chance is enough for us to back. But with some decent attacking weapons for both and the history of this game, a 1-1 scoreline and narrow home victory look most likely.