- Home form: CSKA Moscow have won nine of their 14 home matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 26 goals.
- Away form: Lokomotiv Moscow have won six of their 14 away league games and scored 23 goals.
- Recent form: CSKA have lost two and drawn two of their last five Premier League matches, while Lokomotiv have won two, drawn two and lost one.
Moscow derby could be a cagey but goal-rich clash
Context and stakes
Lokomotiv Moscow have the momentum to edge a close matchup against CSKA in the Moscow derby at the VEB Arena on Sunday. Lokomotiv are third in the Premier League table with 53 points from 29 games while the hosts are in fifth place with 48 points from the same number of matches.
Both teams will be desperate to earn the bragging rights of local supremacy as well as the three points on offer in this late-season city matchup.
Tactics and coaches
Mikhail Galaktionov has turned Lokomotiv into a disciplined, possession-based side that likes to control the pace of games and pick opponents off since he took over as head coach in November 2022. The visitors have a measured 4-2-3-1 system that allows the double pivot to control the midfield tempo and the central playmaker to pick the defensive lines apart with a well-timed pass.
CSKA are more of a 4-2-3-1 team, but with far less space in the midfield and far more intensity. Igdisamov's team like to press high up the field and force opponents into mistakes, then they get on the break and try to overload the attacking third. Newly appointed interim boss Dmitriy Igdisamov will attempt to keep that identity while trying to steady the ship after a patchy run of one win, two draws and two losses.
Galaktionov’s men can grind it out
Away form and betting angles
The Zelenograd club’s away form has been solid with six wins and 23 goals in 14 road trips this season. They have lost one and won one of their last two away matches, so odds of around 2.7 for an away win look pretty tempting here.
Galaktionov’s impact on Lokomotiv cannot be overstated as they now dictate the flow of games through the structure of their midfield and their selective pressing. CSKA, by contrast, are a little patchy, having failed to win in their last two home league matches.
Igdisamov’s job will be to try to get the side back to their stable state while maintaining the intensity that they play with. Lokomotiv will counter with their gameplan and it will be a chess match of transitions and midfield control. Lokomotiv’s away goal average of 1.64 should be compared to CSKA’s 26 goals at the VEB Arena to see that these two clubs are evenly matched and that the value for the road team is just too good to ignore.
- There will be no lack of urgency to score from either side with a goal average of exactly 1.0 between them in the last five Moscow derbies at this venue.
- Both teams to score (yes) looks a decent investment at 1.69 and the over 2.5 goals bet at 1.97 should also be of interest.
- We’re going to take the visitors to edge this one, however, given their overall superiority over the last eight months or so.
- Aleksey Batrakov is Lokomotiv’s danger man with 13 Premier League goals in 27 appearances this term, but CSKA’s Ivan Oblyakov, who has six in 28, is the most creative player on the field when he plays from the deep midfield role.
- CSKA’s home record, which includes a 2-1 win over Lokomotiv in a friendly two months ago at the VEB, must also be considered.
