- Match result: CSKA Sofia beat Derry City 3-2 in UEFA Europa League Qualification 2026 on Thursday in an even and exciting encounter.
- Away form: CSKA Sofia are 3-0-2 in their last 5 away matches in all competitions.
- Home form: Derry City are 2-2-1 in their last 5 home matches but have conceded only 5 goals in those 5 games.
CSKA’s control and creativity could clinch a 2nd leg win
PFC CSKA Sofia nicked the first leg of this tie 3-2 against Derry City in UEFA Europa League Qualification 2026 on Thursday and the Bulgarian side look set to nick the second as well. However, Derry City's compact and defensive mindset should ensure that the tie remains close for the duration, although they are unlikely to have enough to claim a return leg win.
Hristo Yanev has the Bulgarian team playing with more control and authority than Derry and it's shown in their results. CSKA's 3-2 victory on Thursday was their second victory in the last 5 matches, having also lost 1-0 away to PFC Ludogorets Razgrad in the Parva Liga – Championship Group 2026. In the previous ten games, CSKA Sofia have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, so that is a much stronger body of work than Derry's recent outings.
Tiernan Lynch's Derry City set up to be compact and hard to break down. The Irish side's 4-2-3-1 shape is a tight and sturdy shape and it is best suited to teams who can sit deep, protect the middle and get men behind the ball when not in possession to transition from the back. CSKA are the opposite in every sense and tend to play on the front foot, dominating possession and creating wide overloads to stretch their opponents. They also press with men forward to try and force the opposition into turnovers and that style should see them control this tie.
However, Derry are tough to break down and even though they are coming into this game on the back of a two-match losing streak – including a 4-2 home defeat to Waterford FC in the Premier Division 2026 and that 3-2 loss to CSKA in Europe – they have only conceded five goals in their last five home matches.
Derry’s directness to be countered by CSKA’s flair
Players to watch
Michael Duffy has been the creative engine for Derry and has registered an impressive 4 assists in their last 5 games so the final ball has been going through nicely for Derry but CSKA should have more creativity and flair.
- James Olayinka looks to be Derry City's main man for the finishing, with the former Tottenham Hotspur youngster getting the only goal he has scored in 1 game in UEFA Europa League Qualification 2026, and I am backing him to find the net again.
- CSKA's danger man is Ioannis Pittas, who has also scored 2 goals in 1 game in UEFA Europa League Qualification 2026, and he has also struck 2 of the 5 goals that the Bulgarians have scored in their last 5 competitive games.
Betting and predictions
The market odds of 1.75 for CSKA Sofia to win, with Derry City 4.2 and the draw 3.7 are way off, so I am sticking with the visitors to do a double in the two-leg series.
Both teams to score at 1.6 has a good chance of landing again after Thursday's 3-2 win and Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 looks like another solid bet on what should be a lively night in Northern Ireland at the Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
