- Home form: FC Ararat-Armenia have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.
- Recent form: Riga FC have won 4 and drawn 1 of their last 5 games (D1, W4).
- Away run: Riga FC are unbeaten in 4 away matches across all competitions (W3, D1).
This game has a draw vibe, but Riga can nick it
The draw at 3.43 is tempting here, but Riga FC come into this match as the slight favorites at 2.34, but with FC Ararat-Armenia priced up at 2.68, we're going to go with the visitors for a narrow win in what is likely to be a tight UEFA Champions League qualifying match.
Riga FC have been in fine form across the last 5 matches and their 2-0 victory at FK Auda yesterday has put some spring in their step ahead of this match. In fact, Adrian Gula's team are now unbeaten in 10 games across all competitions (W8, D2) and this looks like a serious run.
FC Ararat-Armenia will have something to say, however, as they've won 7, drawn 2 and lost just 1 of their last 10 across all competitions, so they aren't in the wrong sort of shape either. However, Ararat-Armenia's 0-4 home loss to FC Noah Artsakh is still fresh in the memory and they will need to improve on that effort here.
Riga’s attacking style is ideal for the Champions League
Tactical approach
Tulipa has set FC Ararat-Armenia up to be a pragmatic unit and the home side will sit in a compact block and look to counter attack at speed. Gula's Riga FC favour a more open style of play and have set their team up in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, in order to overload the wide areas, press high up the pitch and force turnovers.
Form and confidence
The Latvian side are full of momentum and they have the better overall form, so we're backing them to edge what should be a close match. Riga FC's unbeaten away record is 3 wins and 1 draw from 4 matches (all-comps) and they average 2.25 goals per game on the road, so they will be confident of getting the job done in Armenia.
Back Under 2.5 goals in a Riga win
The 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 shape of Riga FC is built on getting the ball wide and forcing turnovers high up the pitch and this will test the home sides defensive resolve on Tuesday. FC Ararat-Armenia are more of a counter-attacking unit, so this will likely be a clash of possession against resistance.
- Riga FC have managed 9 goals on the road across all competitions this season and the front three are a potent mix, with forward Mohamed Badamosi scoring 4 of their 12 goals across the last 5 games, so he's clearly the man to watch in the final third.
- FC Ararat-Armenia have scored 10 goals in their last 6 home games across all competitions and can nick one if everything falls right, but Riga FC have the sharper end to them right now.
- An away win and under 2.5 goals fits the most likely scenario at 1.81, while we're also going for Both Teams to Score – No at 1.93.
