- Team form: PAOK won 3 of their last 5 matches (W3, D1, L1), scoring 8 and conceding 5 goals.
- Opposition form: Anderlecht won 2 of their last 5 (W2, D2, L1), scoring 8 and conceding 8.
- Home form: PAOK are on a 2-game winning streak and have won 3 of their 6 home matches across all competitions, averaging 2.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
PAOK can edge out the underdog Belgians
Odds and context
FC PAOK Thessaloniki enter this UEFA Europa League Qualification 2026 tie as the slight favorites at 1.8, with RSC Anderlecht a massive 4.45 and the draw 3.7, and that is perhaps just about right. The Greeks enter the game on the back of two victories, beating Dynamo Kiev 3-2 away from home and 2-0 at home in this tournament, while Anderlecht's last 5-game stretch has been a mixed run of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, culminating in a 3-1 home win over Hammarby and a 1-1 away draw.
Recent form
PAOK's current form of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games represents a significant uptick in form for the Greek side, which will be a welcome boost ahead of what is expected to be a tense European affair. Anderlecht's form is more solid than spectacular, with 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats in their last 10 and a first away win across all competitions still to come, having drawn twice and lost twice.
Tactics and match-up
The Greeks have been helped by the arrival of coach Alessio Lisci, who has installed a more structured and disciplined three-at-the-back system with wide wing-backs, while a possession-first, high-pressing approach has been a key focus for Anderlecht's Vitor Bruno. This is a clash of styles, as Anderlecht will look to play on the front foot and play their way out of pressure with a possession-first, pressing and ball-combination based approach, while PAOK rely on a compact three-back shape with wing-back width.
The visitors look leaky on the road and PAOK should be able to take advantage of that with a game plan that suits their style of play.
A tight PAOK win or draw is the most likely outcome, and we're leaning towards the hosts just about edging this one out.
- Both teams to score is a strong option at 1.8, but we're expecting a close night in Thessaloniki and are leaning towards Under 2.5 goals at 1.87 rather than the slightly longer Over 2.5.
- Giannis Konstantelias is PAOK's main man in the final third for this competition, scoring 3 of their 8 goals in the last 5.
- Danylo Sikan has been Anderlecht's top man, firing 3 of their 8 total in the same period.
