Gremio Porto Alegrense RS

vs

Chapecoense SC

Tips, Stats and Odds

Gremio Porto Alegrense RS are the clear favorites at 1.46 for Sunday's Serie A clash with Chapecoense SC with the visitors at 6.8 and the draw at 4.2, but there may be a bit more life in the game than the market suggests. Luis Castro's men have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five games and come into this fixture on the back of two straight away defeats.

The Tricolor have been in transition since the tactician took over on 12 December 2025 and he has developed a flexible 4-3-3 system that is both high-tempo and interior-oriented. Gremio push the ball forward quickly and press hard after turnovers, which should test Chapecoense's ability to stay compact.

Lacerda's men have been anything but fluent this season, but they remain with the structure that Lacerda has tried to impose upon them, coupled with a willingness to bite on the break when they do get over the halfway line, should ensure that they don't get run over in this fixture.

Chapecoense have won none, drawn three, so there is little basis for the bettor to put money on them here. But the hosts are in mixed recent form and the last head-to-head meeting between these sides finished 1-1 at the Arena Condá so this could be tight.

Both teams to score at 1.91 looks a live bet if Chapecoense nick a goal in transition, but we are taking Gremio to win and under 2.5 goals as the market looks to favor a home win with a couple of goals in it.

Cristian Pavon has been Gremio's sharpest edge, with two of their three goals scored in their last 5 games coming from his foot, while Giovanni Augusto has been the chief creator for the Verdão, laying on three of their five goals in their recent five-goal run.