- Recent form: Middlesbrough’s 5-game sequence in the Championship includes two wins, two draws, and a defeat.
- Momentum: Boro have lost some momentum in the last five games.
Middlesbrough and Saints set for a titanic playoff showdown
Match overview:
Middlesbrough and Southampton are nearly identical teams and will go head-to-head in an intriguing semifinal matchup for a potential Wembley final and a place back in the Premier League. Both teams finished the regular season level on 80 points, with Saints having a +26 goal difference to Boro’s +25, which was enough to see them finish fourth in the table. Both teams will go into the first leg nearly at full strength and with confidence to spare.
Tactical setups:
Boro boss Kim Hellberg has instilled a possession-based, back-three system at Riverside with plenty of trigger moments for the wing-backs to overlap and a selective, high-pressing game to force turnovers and catch opponents in transition. Saints’ flexible 4-2-3-1 system sees them move the ball at pace and press in waves, winning the ball back in good positions to spring forward and attack the opposition with their attacking players.
Boro’s psychological edge could be negated by Saints’ momentum
Both sides are so similar that it’s impossible to see this first leg going to either team and backing the tie at 3.38 might be the smartest move here. Boro’s 4-0 win over Saints is fresh in the memory, but Saints’ 19-game unbeaten run is also a big psychological advantage.
- Morgan Whittaker is Boro’s biggest threat, scoring a pair in the 4-0 win over Southampton earlier this year.
- Tommy Conway provides them with another dependable goal threat and has been combining well with Whittaker to hurt defences this season.
- Cyle Larin will be a threat after his red-hot form for Southampton, having scored multiple goals in recent starts and hitting a stoppage-time clincher at Preston.
- Daniel Peretz’s impressive saves between the posts have given Saints plenty of momentum during their recent unbeaten run.
- Léo Scienza has been the main creator for Saints, ranking among the Championship's top assist providers, and often has the vision to pick the perfect pass through the most crowded of defences.
Two teams, one goal
Both of these teams have a single goal and that’s to get to Wembley and back into the top-flight, so we’re backing the goals to flow on Saturday. The ‘Both teams to score - Yes’ market at 1.79 is very popular here and aligns perfectly with the expectation that this will be a high-quality game of soccer between two very good teams.
A 1-1 draw would be a good outcome, so we’re going with a 1-1 draw and a smaller bet on a 2-1 home victory in the exact score market.
