- Team form: Millwall have won two, drawn two and lost just one of their last five games.
- Away Championship form: Oxford have won none, drawn one and lost one of their last two Championship away games.
- Last meeting: The last meeting between the two in the Championship, which took place at the Kassam five months ago, finished 2-2.
Lions are making good progress
With 80 points from 45 games, Millwall enter the final five-match stretch of the Championship campaign sat third in the table, where they have been for some time. A combination of Alex Neil’s tactical flexibility - where he switches his team between a back four and back three system depending on the opponent - and his own pragmatic approach have kept the Lions in the promotion race.
Neil’s side have won one and lost one of their last two home games. Recent results include a 2-0 home win over QPR, a 3-1 away victory at Stoke City and a 1-1 draw at Leicester City.
A compact base, direct vertical play and a knack for exploiting set pieces has been a recipe for success for the Lions, who will be keen to get back to winning ways on Saturday.
Bloomfield’s Oxford yet to gel
Matt Bloomfield has taken the Us over the line, but his approach is very different to that of Karl Robinson. He has clearly instilled a more possession-based style and has encouraged a more proactive pressing game, but it is clear the players have been slow to adapt to their new boss’s ideas.
The Us have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five, losing 0-1 at home to Wrexham before beating Sheffield Wednesday 4-1 in their next home game.
Oxford’s away form remains poor - won four, drawn six and lost 12 in the Championship. The visitors are already relegated - with 47 points from 45 matches and currently 22nd - so only the home team has something to play for on Saturday. Oxford, however, could yet add some sting to their tail by getting on the scoresheet at The Den.
Back under 2.5 goals
Odds and value
The 1.34 odds for a home win are a bit too tight for a team that has won 12, drawn three and lost seven of their 22 Championship fixtures at The Den. There are better value markets elsewhere in this matchup, with the 2.21 odds for under 2.5 goals looking a little too high considering the averages of these two sides.
Stats and prediction
This looks set to be a tight contest between two sides with contrasting styles - with Neil’s team set to test Bloomfield's transition with their discipline in possession and threat from set pieces.
I’m expecting under 2.5 goals to be scored as both teams will look to keep it tight, but Oxford have added more attacking intent recently and could grab a goal - so I’m also going for both teams to score - yes at 1.89.
- Millwall score an average of 1.41 goals per home game in the Championship, while they concede at a rate of 1.14 goals at The Den.
- Oxford, meanwhile, score an average of 0.95 per Championship away game, scoring 21 goals on the road this season.
Go for goals at both ends
Femi Azeez has been Millwall’s most reliable source of goals this season, scoring nine times in 34 Championship appearances. The forward can be a reliable source of goals at odds against on Saturday, while Oxford’s most prolific player Will Lankshear has 11 to his name in 43 games. He has three goals in United’s last eight, so he looks a good price to score anytime at The Den.
