- Odds: MK Dons are the clear favorites at 1.51 to beat League Two Swindon Town at Stadium MK on Saturday.
- Form: The Dons are on a three-game winning streak and have won two of their last three home head-to-heads.
- Away form: The visitors have only won one of their four away games across all competitions (W1, D1, L2).
Dons to outgun the Robins
Warne's system:
MK Dons boss Paul Warne has been in charge of an extremely effective and structured side this season, playing a three at the back system with wing-backs and a patient possession game that has been designed to stretch the opposition's press and make chances in the box. This game plan has been in full effect during their last two games, which has seen them hammer Bromley 4-1 and Doncaster Rovers 6-1 at home.
Recent form:
The hosts are in great form coming into this fixture with six wins, two draws and two defeats from their last ten in all competitions. They are up against a Swindon side who are enjoying a minor resurgence of late.
The Robins have played out two wins, two draws and a defeat from their last five games, beating Barnet 3-1 on the road before drawing 0-0 away to Bristol Rovers and then edging out Rotherham United 2-1 at home.
Town boss Ian Holloway has installed a fast-paced, high-energy game into his players and they press high up the pitch and look to make fast breaks with the ball, often leading to a chaotic but exciting matchup.
Swindon can make a game of it
The Dons are the obvious choice for this one as they have been a much more cohesive side this term and arrive in good form.
However, the odds don't quite reflect Swindon's mixed but improving form since Holloway's arrival and the 5.55 on the visitors and the 4.3 on the draw look too big.
- Our main choice will be to take MK Dons to edge it, but we do believe that Swindon's energetic press and their ability to make turnovers count in the attack could make this match closer than the odds suggest.
- An overs bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.64 looks the safest route to take in the over/under markets, which fits with expectations of a cup game where the floodgates are opened.
- Aaron Collins has been a real danger man for MK Dons recently, netting three of their seven goals in the last five, while Aaron Drinan has been a menace for the opposite side, scoring three of their four in the same period.
