- Team form: New York City FC are unbeaten in three home matches (Won 2, drawn 1).
- Visitors form: Santos Laguna have won one and lost four of their five away matches (Won 1, lost 4).
- Key player: New York City FC's Nicolas Fernandez has scored four of his team's seven goals in the last five matches.
Control vs chaos at Yankee Stadium
New York City FC come into this crucial CONCACAF Leagues Cup 2026-2027 group game as 1.67 favorites to beat Santos Laguna Mexico (4.35), who are the long shots to come away with a result while the draw is 3.8.
The hosts enter the game in mixed form with a 1-2 win away at Columbus Crew and a 3-1 home win against Chicago Fire in MLS 2026. But their overall form is good, with a 1-1 home draw with Toronto FC played yesterday, so NYCFC aren't coming into this clash out of form or easy to beat.
In fact, NYCFC have five wins, two draws and three defeats from their last ten games across all competitions, which is a solid run that should see them progress into the 2027 CONCACAF Champions Cup if they can take the points on Thursday.
Santos are shaky on the road
Recent results
Santos are in poorer form with one win and four defeats from their last five games and they enter the match off consecutive defeats in Liga MX 2026/2027 – 3-2 away at Monterrey and 0-1 at home to Atlas.
Home and away form
The visitors put a few goals away at home against CF Rayados de Monterrey (3-0 win), but they looked shaky when they lost 3-2 away to the same opponents a few weeks earlier. And their form away across all competitions looks poor, with just one win and four losses from five games.
Implications
That's going to put Santos under pressure for this game, so we must rate a New York City FC win as the top pick here with the home side very much the most likely to control the pace, smother the game and nick the win when the opportunity arises.
New York City FC should get the edge
Tactical setup
Pascal Jansen's NYCFC look built to control games in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation, where they will dominate the ball, squeeze the midfield and pounce when the games open up.
Santos will look to play quickly, get the ball wide and counter-press aggressively, which could open up the match if NYCFC lose their shape or are not fully on their game.
The bettor is leaning towards goals here, with Over 2.5 at 1.51 and Both Teams To Score – Yes at 1.53, but we're going with the hosts to get the victory and a low-score line because of their home stats and the visitors' road troubles.
- Lucas Di Yorio has two goals in his last five appearances for Santos Laguna, which is two of their total of five goals in that time.
- Renato Paiva has installed a 4-3-3 at Santos Laguna with a real attack-first mindset, which means plenty of wing speed, vertical combinations and a high-risk press.
- Ezequiel Bullaude has three assists in their last five, so Paiva has a creative player between the lines who can mix it up.
