- Head-to-head: NYCFC have won the last 5 meetings between the two teams, including a 3-1 victory at home in MLS 2025.
- Betting odds: NYCFC are the clear favorites at 1.78, with Toronto at 4.35 and the draw at 3.85.
- Away form: Toronto have failed to win their last 2 matches away at NYCFC.
Two very different approaches to the game
NYCFC's approach
New York City FC (13th, 22 points from 16 matches) will be looking to get ahead of Toronto FC (26th, 16 points from 16 games) when the two MLS 2026 strugglers meet on Friday. NYCFC will try to dominate the ball, build their attacking moves and overload the wings, before rotating players in.
They've also been playing well in recent games, with their 1-2 away win over Columbus Crew being a great bounce back after back-to-back away defeats. Pascal Jansen's side is capable of playing an engaging and exciting brand of soccer when at their best, with Nicolas Fernandez their key man up top.
The Argentine leads the way for NYCFC this season with 11 goals in 16 MLS 2026 matches and he'll be the man Toronto need to watch closely on Friday. He's also been in incredible form of late, scoring 3 of NYCFC's 5 goals across their last 5 games.
Toronto's approach
Robin Fraser's Toronto FC are more of a compact, aggressive and transition-based side. They'll aim to frustrate NYCFC by pressing hard and they'll try to win the ball and get players behind the NYCFC line as quickly as possible. Toronto are without a win in their last 5 (D2, L3), but they have shown some spirit in two consecutive 0-0 draws away from home.
NYCFC have the edge
Toronto's chief goal threat is Daniel Salloi, who has 4 goals in 16 MLS 2026 games for the Reds. NYCFC do have the home advantage, the better recent record and the edge in the head-to-head record, but Toronto will give this a good go. The visitors will press hard and if they get the early goal, they could potentially spoil NYCFC's rhythm.
However, we're going for the home win on the night, given NYCFC's greater match advantage and Toronto's poor away form.
- However, NYCFC score an average of 2.38 goals per home game in MLS 2026 (19 goals scored in 8 games), while Toronto have only scored 5 goals across their 7 away games in MLS 2026.
- NYCFC are clearly the favourites at 1.78, but we feel the draw at 3.85 is a better option for this clash.
- New York City have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their home games in MLS 2026, while Toronto have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 4 away from home.
- Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score at 1.75 and 1.72 respectively are also favored, as we're expecting an open game where both sides get chances.
